逐步多元回归法在负荷模型扩展中的应用  

Application of Stepwise Multiple Regression to Load Model Extension

作　　者：郑晓雨[1] 贺仁睦[1] 马进[1] 

机构地区：[1]电力系统保护与动态安全监控教育部重点实验室(华北电力大学),北京市昌平区102206

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2011年第4期72-77,共6页Proceedings of the CSEE

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50707009);北京市科技新星计划;电力系统及发电设备安全控制和仿真国家重点实验室开放项目(SKLD09KM04);"111"引智计划(B08013)~~

摘　　要：为了在仅已知负荷组成比例时求取该点的负荷模型,将统计学里的逐步多元回归法引入到负荷模型的扩展当中,首先通过少数已知负荷点的实测模型和负荷组成比例建立模型回归函数,然后通过此函数和待求负荷点的负荷组成概况推导出此负荷点的模型,在模型回归函数变量筛选时采用了逐步回归法,此方法克服了向前引入法和向后剔除法固有的缺点,由此方法建立的模型回归函数弥补了模型向量基法在负荷模型拓展时对实测负荷点个数要求过多的缺陷,为负荷模型的大范围推广提供了借鉴,实际负荷数据验证了该方法的有效性。In order to derive a load model with the only known condition of load composition, the multiple regression method was applied to the extension of the model. First, the model regression function was investigated according to the obtained information about load models and load composition. Then, the model at the point without field measurements was deduced based on its load composition and the model regression function. The stepwise method, which overcomes the disadvantages of the forward method and the backward method, was adopted in the selection of variables for the build of model regression function. Thus the model built up by the stepwise method can be more practical than the one derived by the basic vector method, since the latter requires more load model information. It is concluded that the proposed method provides guidance for load model application, and is proved to be effective by the actual instance.

关 键 词：负荷建模 模型结构 逐步多元回归 向量基 模型扩展 

分 类 号：TM714[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]