南水北调西线一期工程调水河流之间实施补偿调度的可能性分析  

ANALYSIS ON PROBABILITIES FOR COMPENSATORY OPERATIONS BETWEEN RIVERS IN AREA OF FIRST PHASE OF WESTERN ROUTE OF SOUTH TO NORTH WATER TRANSFER PROJECT

作　　者：张永[1,2] 丁志宏[1] 冯平[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑工程学院,天津300072 [2]水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京100011

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2011年第1期48-52,共5页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50879051)

摘　　要：以道孚、绰斯甲、足木足水文站1960～2000年的同步天然年径流量系列为基础,应用Copula方法构造了南水北调西线一期工程调水河流之间的径流联合分布模型,具体分析了鲜水河、绰斯甲河、足木足河这3条调水河流之间实施补偿调度的概率。结果表明:鲜水河与足木足河之间实施补偿调度的可能性最大,绰斯甲河与足木足河之间实施补偿调度的可能性次之,鲜水河与绰斯甲河之间实施补偿调度的可能性最小,其概率分别为43.74%、38.84%和25.82%。Based on the synchronous natural annual runoff time series from 1960 to 2000 at Daofu,Chuosijia,Zumuzu gauges,Copula method was applied to construct the runoff joint distribution models between the water transfer rivers in the area of First Phase Project of Western Route of South to North Water Transfer Project,and then the probabilities of compensatory operations between the rivers were thoroughly analyzed.The results show that among all the three probabilities of compensatory operations between the rivers,the largest was between Xianshui River and Zumuzu River,the second was between Chuosijia River and Zumuzu River and the smallest was between Xianshui River and Chuosijia River,wich were 43.74%,38.84% and 25.82% respectively.

关 键 词：南水北调 西线一期工程 调水河流 补偿调度 频率 COPULA 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]