中国货币政策行业非对称效应研究——基于30个行业面板数据的实证研究  

Research on the Heterogeneous Impact of Monetary Policy across Industries in China?

作　　者：曹永琴[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院部门经济研究所,200020

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2011年第1期3-15,共13页Shanghai Journal of Economics

摘　　要：本文沿银行信贷、资产负债表和相对价格三条货币政策传导渠道,从理论上分析货币政策行业非对称效应的形成机理;并基于30个典型行业月度面板数据、分四个递进层次建立实证模型检验理论结果。研究发现,行业间特征差异显著,货币政策冲击经传导后对各行业影响程度差别非常之大;行业运营资本比重、银行信贷依赖程度、财务杠杆水平和劳动密集程度越高以及行业内公司的平均规模越小,受货币政策的冲击越大。把握货币政策行业非对称效应的规律并发挥政策在调结构方面的作用,对于中央银行有较强的现实意义。中小型公司和劳动密集型行业受政策影响最大,紧缩性货币政策会加剧中国的失业问题。中央银行应尽可能提高政策的针对性和灵活性,配合信贷政策在总量和结构上调控经济。This paper theoretically analyzes the asymmetric effect of monetary policy across industries along the bank credit, balance sheet and the relative prices transmission channels. And we find the heterogeneous impact of monetary policy across industries in China and try to examine the conclusion from theory model by empirical research based on monthly panel data from 30 typical industries. The Theory models show that the impact of monetary policy across industries is so different because of the different characteristics between industries. The higher the proportion of working capital, reliance on bank loan, financial leverage level and the level of labor-intensive in industry, the higher its sensitivity to monetary policy shocks. But if the average firm＇s scale is smaller in industry, the impact of monetary policy becomes so strong. The central bank should master the rules of heterogeneous impact of monetary policy across industries to regulate economy. Small and medium enterprises and labor-intensive industries are so sensitive to tight monetary policy which would exacerbate the unemployment problem in China, so Central Bank implement credit policy to minimize the negative impacts.

关 键 词：货币政策 传导渠道 行业非对称效应 行业特征 金融加速器 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]