中国贸易收支的汇率弹性和收入弹性分析  

The Exchange Elasticity and Income Elasticity for Bilateral Trade Balance between China and Its Major Trade Partners

作　　者：奚君羊[1] 李志军[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学,200433

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2011年第1期54-58,45,共6页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：上海财经大学"211"第三期建设项目资助

摘　　要：本文基于中国与前18大贸易伙伴的月度双边数据,计算了双边贸易收支的长期汇率弹性和收入弹性。结果表明汇率弹性有正有负,存在相互抵消现象,因而汇率对中国总的贸易收支影响可能不显著。另一方面,收入弹性普遍大于汇率弹性,再加上全球经济的长期增长幅度一般要超过汇率变动幅度,因此,中国和贸易伙伴的经济增长对中国贸易收支的影响要明显大于汇率,中国的巨额贸易顺差主要来源于中国和全球的经济增长而非汇率变动,因此以中国存在贸易顺差而要求人民币升值缺乏充分的依据。This paper analyzes exchange elasticity and income elasticity for bilateral trade balance between China and its 18 largest trade partners by the use of monthly data. The study shows that the effects of the bilateral exchange rate on the bilateral trade balance can be positive or negative in different cases and can be offset each other. Therefore the general effect is not significant. While the effects of the income elasticity on the trade balance are much more significant. The authors thereby conclude that China huge trade surplus was mainly caused by the economic growth of China and its trade partners, which improved the export ability of China because of the supply effect and improved the import ability of its trade partners because of the demand effect.

关 键 词：贸易收支 汇率弹性 收入弹性 人民币升值 

分 类 号：F830.73[经济管理—金融学]