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机构地区:[1]广西医科大学人文管理学院,南宁530021 [2]华侨大学建设管理系,福建厦门361021
出 处:《中国卫生经济》2011年第1期14-17,共4页Chinese Health Economics
基 金:华侨大学高层次人才引进基金项目(09BS623)
摘 要:文章采用系统动力学原理和方法,从投入与产出角度提出了卫生业与医药制造业发展的互动机理及其动力模型。根据我国1992年至2007年卫生业、医药制造业及宏观经济发展的历史数据,模拟和预测了我国卫生业、医药制造业发展现状及发展趋势;分别改变卫生业及医药制造业劳动、资金投入等参数,模拟并预测了其对两产业产值的影响效应。设定金融危机对卫生业与医药制造业的影响参数,并模拟卫生业增加761.376亿元投资时对两产业的拉动效应。、研究结果证明,卫生业与医药制造业发展互动影响效应明显;在金融危机情形下,对卫生业增加投资,能有效促进卫生业及医药制造业等关联产业的持续增长,促进GDP的持续增长。对于卫生政策研究具有重要的参考价值。Through using dynamical principles and methods, and from the point view of input-output mode, the interior mechanism and dynamical model between health industry and medical manufacturing industry was proposed with System Dynamics. Through collecting and analyzing the history data of health industry from 1992 to 2007, medical manufacturing industry and macro-economy, the current situation and tendency of health industry and medical manufacturing industry were monitored with the dynamical model. The parameters of health care and medical manufacture result from financial crisis are defined, and the pulling effect of two industries by the counter- measure of monitored health care industry with the increasing rate of 76.137 billion of investment plans was also monitored. The re- search results indicated that the interior mechanism between health industry and medical manufacturing industry was very obvious. Un- der the financial crisis, increasing the investment of health care field can promote the increase the development of health industry, med- ical manufacturing industry and other related associated industry. So the interior mechanism between health industry and medical manu- facturing industry has significant reference value for health policy.
关 键 词:卫生业 医药制造业 系统动力学 互动机理 互动效应
分 类 号:R197.1[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]
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