城市重特大事故情景再现与态势推演决策模型研究  

Research on a policy-making model of the recreation and development predication of serious urban accidents

作　　者：吴广谋[1] 赵伟川[1] 江亿平[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学系统工程研究所,江苏南京210096

出　　处：《东南大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2011年第1期18-23,123,共6页Journal of Southeast University(Philosophy and Social Science)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"城际重大危险源应急网络协同机制研究"(06BZZ019);南京市软科学项目"南京市重特大事故情景再现与态势推演策略研究"(宁科200903067)成果之一

摘　　要：近年来,我国城市重特大事故尤其是非常规突发事件的频发已严重威胁到了城市的安全发展,而传统的基于"预测—应对"的应急决策模式已难以满足灾变环境下城市重特大事故应急决策的要求。本文结合当今城市重特大事故的特点,提出了一种基于情景再现与态势推演策略的"情景—应对"应急决策模型,分析表明,该模型要优于传统的"预测—应对"模式,更能适应当前城市重特大事故应急决策科学性的要求,从而为城市应急决策理论与方法提供了有益的探索和创新。The traditional emergency management model of 'predict-handle' turns out to be insufficient for the new situation today as the frequent occurrence of serious urban accidents in recent years has been a threat to the secure urban development.Based on the characteristics of the serious urban accidents today,this paper proposes a model capable of recreating and predicting the development situation of accidents.It has been testified experimentally that this model,superior to the traditional one,can meet the demands for more scientific policies in handling the serious urban accidents today and thus is an in-depth exploration of the urban accident management theory and practice.

关 键 词：重特大事故 应急决策 情景再现 态势推演 “情景—应对”决策 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学]