华北地区自然疫源性疾病的分布及其与气象条件的关系  

Association between infectious diseases with natural foci and meteorological factors in North China

作　　者：霍爱梅[1] 赵达生[1] 方立群[2] 曹务春[2] 

机构地区：[1]军事医学科学院科技部,北京100851 [2]军事医学科学院微生物与流行病研究所

出　　处：《中国病原生物学杂志》2011年第1期5-7,11,F0003,共5页Journal of Pathogen Biology

基　　金：国家"十一五"传染病重大专项(No.2008ZX10004-012;No.2009ZX10004-720)

摘　　要：目的在华北地区8种自然疫源性疾病高发区进行热点区域探测,分析影响不同自然疫源性疾病发病率的气象因素。方法应用空间聚类分析方法对华北地区1994~2000年8种自然疫源性疾病高发区进行空间聚类分析,应用面板数据分析定量评价气象条件对肾综合征出血热等4种疾病发病率的影响。结果华北地区自然疫源性疾病以肾综合征出血热、斑疹伤寒和乙脑为主,年均发病率分别为4.17/10万、2.13/10万和0.23/10万。各省市8种传染病发病率存在差异,以河北、内蒙古发病率较高。不同类型自然疫源性疾病的高发聚集区空间分布为非随机分布。气象因素分析显示,肾综合征出血热、斑疹伤寒发病率与平均气温呈正相关,布病的发病率与平均最高气温呈负相关,斑疹伤寒、乙脑发病率与平均相对湿度呈正相关;肾综合征出血热发病率与日照呈负相关。结论华北地区8种自然疫源性疾病的分布具有显著的空间聚集性,其流行与气象条件关系密切。气温（包括气温的极值）、湿度和日照对自然疫源性疾病发病率的影响较大。建议在自然疫源性疾病的防控中纳入对气象条件和自然疫源地气候的监测。Objective To analyze how meteorological factors affect the incidence of different natural foci of disease in accordance with the detection of hotspots of the eight natural foci of disease in North China.Methods Spatial clustering analysis was used to draw the higher incidence areas of the eight natural foci of disease in North China from 1994 to 2000,and panel data analysis was performed to quantitatively assess the effects of meteorological factors on hemorrhagic fever and other three diseases with natural foci.Results Hemorrhagic fever,typhus,and Japanese encephalitis were the major diseases in North China,with an annual incidence of 4.17/100000,2.13/100000,and 0.23/100000 respectively.The incidence of the eight diseases in each province differed,with HeBei Province and Inner Mongolia having a higher incidence than other provinces had.The distributions of different natural foci of disease were significantly non-random.Analysis of meteorological factors indicated that the incidence of hemorrhagic fever and typhus was positively correlated with the mean temperature,but the incidence of brucellosis was negatively correlated with the mean maximum temperature.The incidence of typhus and Japanese encephalitis was positively correlated with mean relative humidity.Moreover,the incidence of hemorrhagic fever was negatively correlated with the amount of sunlight.Conclusion The spatial distribution of the eight natural foci of disease in North China represented a significant aggregation,and the epidemics were closely related to meteorological factors.Changes in air temperature（including extremes）,humidity and amount of sunlight were the main meteorological factors.Detection of meteorological factors and climate at natural foci is advised to control the transmission of infectious diseases with natural foci.

关 键 词：自然疫源性疾病 空间聚集性分析 气象因素 

分 类 号：R51[医药卫生—内科学]