天气系统预报效果的量化检验方法及应用  

The quantified verification method of synoptic meteorology and the application to AREM

作　　者：公颖[1,2] 李俊[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所,武汉430074 [2]中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所,沈阳110016

出　　处：《气象科学》2010年第6期763-772,共10页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY(QX)200706012);中国气象局气象新技术推广项目(CMATG2008Z01)

摘　　要：对中国天气过程进行了分类,并介绍了一种针对模式对于降水及各种天气系统预报效果的天气学检验方法,将此方法应用于AREM模式对2007年降水个例预报及2005—2007年汛期天气过程的批量预报检验,得出结论如下:(1)此天气学检验方法能够对各类天气系统及降水进行有效的检验,(2)对于中国典型高空槽类降水,AREM模式总体上对高空槽预报较为稳定、强度接近实况,对降水预报稳定性相对较差、强度偏弱,槽预报的较好(差)与降水预报的较好(差)不完全对应,(3)对于梅雨锋类降水,AREM模式对副高预报总体偏西、偏北、偏强,对高空槽、降水预报均总体偏弱,副高预报的较好(差)对应降水预报的较好(差)。The rainfall courses in our country were classified,and a synoptic meteorology verification method was introduced and applied to the verification for AREM prediction of several rainfall cases in 2007 and of 2005—2007 flood season.The results show that：（1） this synoptic meteorology verification method could be used to verify weather systems such as 500 hPa subtropical high,trough,and low-level wind shear and so on.（2） For the high level trough type precipitation of north China,on the whole,the 500 hPa trough prediction was stable and the intensity was close to the observation.However,the stability of rainfall prediction was worse,the intensity was always weaker than observation,the better（worse） prediction of trough was not always corresponding to better（worse） rainfall prediction.（3） For the Meiyu front type precipitation,the subtropical high prediction was always inclinable to further west and further north and stronger than observation,both of trough and rainfall were predicted weaker than observation,and better（worse） prediction of subtropical high was always corresponding to better（worse） rainfall prediction.

关 键 词：天气学量化检验 高空槽 低涡 低层切变 降水分型 

分 类 号：P459.9[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]