基于GIS的浙江省年平均气温空间模拟研究  

A research on simulating spatial distribution of mean annual temperature in Zhejiang province based on GIS

作　　者：金志凤[1] 李波[2] 袁德辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江省气候中心,杭州310017 [2]浙江大学公共管理学院,杭州310029

出　　处：《气象科学》2010年第6期836-840,共5页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：科技部农业科技成果转化资金项目(2008GB24160442)

摘　　要：高精度的空间化气温信息对于区域热量资源利用和农业结构调整等方面具有重要意义。本文选取浙江省72个气象站点1971—2008年的年平均气温作为数据源,以地理信息系统(GIS)为技术平台,采用逆距离权重法、普通克立格、样条法和多元回归法等四种空间插值方法,对研究区年平均气温进行空间插值,通过预设的10个检验站点来对插值结果进行评估。结果表明:多元回归法的相对平均误差、绝对平均误差、均方根误差分别仅为0.010、0.173和0.221℃,误差均小于其他三种插值方法,插值效果最好,对于验证站点的年平均气温模拟最接近实际值。High precision spatial information of the temperature is very important for utilizing the regional energy resource and adjusting the agricultural structure.Based on technology platform of geography information system（GIS） and geo-statistics technology,mean annual temperature of 72 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2008 has been used as the data source,the following methods,such as inverse distance weighing interpolation,ordinary kriging interpolation,spline interpolation and multiple regression interpolation were used to spatially interpolate mean annual temperature in study area.Interpolation results were analyzed by the prediction accuracy verified by 10 validated stations.The result demonstrated that mean relative error,mean absolute error,root mean square error of multiple regression interpolation were respectively 0.010,0.173 and 0.221,its error was less than other three interpolation methods,and the interpolation result of multiple regression interpolation was the best of all.The simulating value of mean annual temperature of validated stations was close to the actual value.

关 键 词：年平均气温 空间插值 GIS 

分 类 号：P468.21[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]