降水与地震关系的讨论  

DISCUSSION ON RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATION AND EARTHQUAKE

作　　者：王吉易[1] 平建军[1] 张双凤[2] 范雪芳[3] 

机构地区：[1]河北省地震局,石家庄050021 [2]河北省地震局邯郸中心台,邯郸056006 [3]山西省地震局,太原030023

出　　处：《地震地质》2010年第4期666-677,共12页Seismology and Geology

摘　　要：引用地下流体异常的判定方法,即月均值滑动平均法和从属函数法,处理了北京丰台、山西定襄、河北昌黎3个地震台的降水资料。结果表明,在降水的原始曲线上,降水量异常显示比较模糊;而经过定量处理后,降水存在着明显的中期和中短期异常变化。降水异常与1976年唐山7.8级、1981年丰镇5.6级、1989年大同5.9级、1998年张北6.2级及2006年文安5.1级等多次地震的对应关系良好;与水位、水氡、地形变异常之间有着十分密切的呼应关系。降水异常与地震的关系可用"水诱发机理"来解释;降水异常属于外因性前兆,为非必震信号。降水异常与发震时间的关系密切,可用于地震的中短期预测,其预测期为4～14个月。The atmospheric precipitation data of three seismic stations,Fengtai of Beijing,Dingxiang of Shanxi Province and Changli of Hebei Province,are studied using the moving average method for monthly means and the subordinate function method.The results indicate that there exist obvious medium-term and mid-short-term atmospheric precipitation precursory anomalies before the 1976 Tangshan MS 7.8 earthquake,the 1981 MS 5.6 Fengzhen earthquake,the 1989 Datong MS 5.9 earthquake,the 1998 Zhangbei MS 6.2 earthquake and the 2006 Wen＇an MS 5.1 earthquake.Furthermore,these anomalies are well consistent with precursory anomalies of water level,water radon and ground deformation.The relationship between atmospheric precipitation anomaly and earthquake can be interpreted using the ＂the water trigger mechanism＂.The atmospheric precipitation anomalies are external cause and not essential signal of earthquake.The atmospheric precipitation anomalies are related to the occurrence time of earthquake and can be used for medium and short term prediction of earthquake,its predictive period is about 4～14months.It would be practicable and necessary to try out the atmospheric precipitation anomaly method for earthquake prediction.

关 键 词：降水量 中期前兆 中短期前兆 23点平滑 11点平滑 从属函数 

分 类 号：P315.728[天文地球—地震学]