近52年来江西省气候变化特征研究  

Feature analysis of weather change in recent 52 years in Jiangxi province

作　　者：吴茜[1] 徐莉莉[1] 蔡道明[1] 张海林[1] 叶护平[1] 吴宜进[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学城市与环境科学学院,武汉430079

出　　处：《华中师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第4期686-690,共5页Journal of Central China Normal University：Natural Sciences

基　　金：2010年中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF-10-04)

摘　　要：利用江西省15个气象站1958年～2009年的逐年气温、降水数据,采用线性倾向率、滑动平均、偏最小二乘回归(PLS)、M-K检验和Morlet小波等方法,对江西省气候变化趋势、突变情况和周期特征等进行了研究.结果表明:近52年来江西省年平均气温有显著的上升趋势,上升速率为0.16℃/10 a,进入90年代后这一趋势尤为明显;降水量的线性倾向率为15.135 mm/10 a,但没有通过显著性检验,说明降水量变化不明显.突变分析中,气温发生突变的年份为2004年左右,降水没有突变点.周期分析中,气温和降水变化都包含了26 a、13 a、4 a的振荡周期,26 a左右周期在整个时间段上表现十分明显,为第一主周期.通过对比分析可知,气温与降水的出现时间有较好的一致相关性,即气温偏高的时期为少雨期,气温偏低的时期为多雨期.By using the annual precipitation and temperature data of 15 weather stations in Jiangxi province from 1958 to 2009, by means of linear trend, moving average, PLS, M-K,and wavelet method, do some research on Climate change trend, abrupt change, and cycle characteristics in Jiangxi province. The results show that mean annual temperature presents an obvious growth trend in Jiangxi province in recent 52 years. Average temperature grows at 0. 16℃ per 10 a, especially after 1990s,the increase of temperature is obvious. The rate of linear trend of precipitation is 15. 135 mm per 10 a,but it doesn＇t pass the test of significance. In the analysis of abrupt change, abrupt change of temperature and precipitation happened in 2004,and the series of precipitation don＇t have any obvious change point. In the analysis of cycle,both of temperature and precipitation have an oscillating period of 26 a, 13 a,4 a. The cycle of 26a,which is obvious in whole time series, is the first primary cycle. By comparing, the occurrence of temperature and precipitation is highly related, that is, high temperature presents dry period, low temperature presents the rainy period.

关 键 词：江西省 降水 气温 M-K分析 小波分析 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]