某院门诊诊次的季节趋势预测  

Prediction on Season Trends of Clinic Visits

作　　者：杨仁霞 

机构地区：[1]贵州省湄潭县人民医院病案统计室

出　　处：《中国病案》2010年第12期57-57,共1页Chinese Medical Record

摘　　要：目的预测门诊量,为医院门诊工作的管理决策提供科学依据。方法选取某院5年门诊诊次资料,计算各月季节比率,采用最小二乘法拟合直线趋势方程,进行趋势预测,以95%的置信度进行区间预测。结果通过季节趋势预测,得到该院2010年各月门诊诊次的点估计值和区间预测值。结论趋势季节预测方法对有针对性的加强门诊工作有参考价值。Objective To predict clinic visits in order to provide scientific evidence for the management strategies of clinic.Methods The data of clinic visits in the past 5 years was selected,and the seasonal ratio in various months was also calculated using fitting straight line equation with least square and 95% confidence interval to predict trends of clinic visits.Results Through predicting seasonal trends,the point estimation and interval prediction of clinic visits in various months of 2010 were calculated. Conclusion Prediction of season trends has reference value on pointed and reinforced clinic services.

关 键 词：门诊诊次 季节变动 趋势预测 

分 类 号：R197.3[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]