我国农用化肥施用的影响因素——基于省际面板数据的实证分析  

Influential Factors of Chemical Fertilizer Employing in China:Empirical Study Based on Provincial Panel Data

作　　者：龚琦[1] 王雅鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《生态经济》2011年第2期33-38,43,共7页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项"洱海流域清水方案与社会经济发展友好模式研究课题"(2009ZX07105-001);国家自然科学基金"我国粮食安全目标下的粮食生产;流通;储备协调机制研究"(70673027)

摘　　要：我国农用化肥施用量不断提高带来的环境污染问题日益严重。研究化肥施用的影响因素及其影响程度,为防止化肥滥施、保护生态环境提供依据意义重大。文章采用1999～2008年我国31个省(市、区)的面板数据,通过面板单位根检验、协整关系检验和多元回归方法分别对国内东、中、西三大区域化肥施用密度与其影响因素之间的关系进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,三大区域农民人均纯收入、人口规模对化肥施用密度具有显著的正向影响,三大区域化肥价格增长率、粮食种植面积比重、化肥产出效率对化肥施用密度具有显著的负向影响,三大区域种植产品生产价格、种植业劳动力数量、农产品国际贸易对化肥施用密度具有不同的影响效果或显著性。The environmental pollution caused by rising use of chemical fertilizer becomes more and more serious in China. To research the influential factors and their influence of chemical fertilizer employing is important to provide the basis for prevent abuse of chemical fertilizer and preserve the ecological environment. Based on the panel data in 31 provinces （cities and municipalities） of China during 1999-2008, this paper analyzes the relationship between the intensity of chemical fertilizer input and its influential factors in the eastern, central, western regions of China by panel unit root test, panel co-integration test and multivariate regression analysis. The results reveal that the net income per capita of farmers, the size of population have remarkable positive effect on the intensity of chemical fertilizer input in three regions; the growth rate of chemical fertilizer＇s price, the proportion of the area of grain, chemical fertilizer output efficiency have remarkable negative effect on the intensity of chemical fertilizer input in three regions; the price of planting products, the quality of crop-plantation labor force, the international trade of agricultural products have different influence or significance on the intensity of chemical fertilizer input in three regions.

关 键 词：化肥 影响因素 面板单位根检验 面板协整检验 多元回归 

分 类 号：F322[经济管理—产业经济]