利用模糊数学方法建立汶川地震滑坡灾害评判标准  

Evaluation criteria of landslide hazards induced by Wenchuan earthquake using fuzzy mathematical method

作　　者：王秀英[1] 聂高众[2] 王松[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地壳应力研究所,北京100085 [2]中国地震局地质研究所,北京100029 [3]中国地震台网中心,北京100045

出　　处：《岩土力学》2011年第2期403-410,共8页Rock and Soil Mechanics

基　　金：中国地震局地壳应力研究所中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务专项资助项目(No.ZDJ2010-28);国家自然科学基金资助项目(No.40872209)

摘　　要：利用汶川地震主震在龙门山震区的强震资料,建立了利用地震动参数估计斜坡位移的Newmark累积位移模型。借助于模糊数学中的隶属函数方法,实现了对模型估计累积位移的隶属度定量计算,进而用以判定滑坡危险性分级。为使计算结果定量化,进一步利用模糊转换方法,将定性的滑坡危险性判定结果转换为定量的概率表达,使滑坡判定结果可以继续应用于其他环节的计算分析。以汶川地震在龙门山震区的滑坡分布为例,对模型的计算结果及其定量转换结果与实际情况进行了分析,表明模型结果与实际情况非常吻合。分析认为,以概率方式可以使滑坡灾害的空间分布描述更为准确,文中的方法使之得以实现。The Newmark accumulated displacement evaluation model was built based on the ground motion data obtained from the Wenchuan main shock distributed along the Longmenshan area.The fuzzy membership functions were used to calculate the degree of memberships when an accumulated displacement was obtained from the evaluation model;and the grade of landslide risks can be decided with the help of the degree of memberships.To quantify the evaluation results,the fuzzy conversion approach was used to convert the degree of memberships into a probabilistic number;and by this way,more depth calculation can be carried out.As an example,the landslides distribution induced by the Wenchuan earthquake was given to compare with the evaluation results,which show the evaluation model and the quantified probabilistic numbers calculated for each region are fit well with the real case.Analysis shows it is more accurate to describe the regional landslides hazards distribution in probabilistic way,which can be achieved by the fuzzy mathematical method.

关 键 词：地震滑坡 评估模型 地震动参数 隶属函数 模糊转换 

分 类 号：P315.0[天文地球—地震学]