我国超额外汇储备规模的成因——基于FDI和加工贸易视角的解释  

FDI, Processing Trade and Excessive Foreign Reserves: Positive Researches on China’s Data and Its Implications

作　　者：王三兴[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽大学经济学院,230039

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2011年第2期158-169,共12页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：教育部人文社科青年基金项目"东亚超额外汇储备规模研究"(项目批准号:09YJC790008)的阶段性研究成果之一;安徽省社科规划项目(批准号:AHSK09-10D27);安徽省高校优秀青年人才基金项目(编号:05011416);安徽省教育厅人文社科一般项目(编号:2010sk052)的资助

摘　　要：本文从国际收支平衡表结构入手分析超额外汇储备的来源,认为中国超额外汇储备规模与FDI和加工贸易净出口有正相关关系。以2001年1月至2008年12月的月度数据为样本,对FDI、货物贸易净出口、一般贸易净出口、加工贸易净出口和外汇储备增加值等变量之间的关系进行了Granger因果检验和VECM检验,结果显示FDI对来料加工净出口和进料加工净出口、来料加工净出口和进料加工净出口对外汇储备增加值均有显著的正向效应,FDI、来料加工净出口或进料加工净出口、外汇储备增加值之间存在长期均衡的协整关系。Based on the structure of international balance of payments to analyze the source of excessive foreign reserves, this paper finds that the large scale of reserves has positive relation with FDI and net processing trade exports. Granger causality and VECM tests are done on variables among FDI, net goods trade exports, net ordinary trade exports, net processing trade exports and foreign reserves in a sample of monthly dates from 2001 to 2008. Results show that FDI has significant positive effects on net exports of processing trade, and the same to processing trade surplus on foreign reserves. It is asserted that long-run equilibrium co-integration relation should exist among FDI, processing trade and add-valued of foreign reserves.

关 键 词：FDI 进料加工贸易 来料加工贸易 超额外汇储备 

分 类 号：F822.2[经济管理—财政学]