三江源气候变化及其对径流的驱动分析  

Climate Change and Its Driving Effect on the Runoff in the "Three-River Headwaters" Region

作　　者：张士锋[1] 华东[1,2] 孟秀敬[1,2] 张永勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《地理学报》2011年第1期13-24,共12页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点基础发展计划(973计划)(2009)~~

摘　　要：以1965-2004年三江源地区12个气象台站的降水和气温资料以及长江源区直门达、黄河源区唐乃亥和澜沧江源区昌都水文站的径流资料为基础,分析三江源地区的降水、气温和径流的变化趋势,并采用Mann-Kendall-Sneyers方法进行趋势显著性检验;采用Makkink公式计算三江源区12个气象站点的潜在蒸发,建立三江源区降水和潜在蒸发对径流的驱动模型,并对气候变化(降水和气温的变化)对径流的驱动进行情景分析。研究表明:1965-2004年三江源区气温升高,径流减少,并且气温和径流都在1994年发生突变,但降水的变化趋势不明显。降水和潜在蒸发对径流深的驱动模型表明三江源区降水对径流起正向的驱动作用,潜在蒸发对径流起负向的驱动作用,具体来说,澜沧江源区潜在蒸发对径流的驱动力最大,长江源区次之,黄河源区最小。借助驱动模型对三江源气候变化(降水和气温的变化)对径流的影响进行情景分析,结果显示,降水和气温对径流的驱动在总体上虽然分别是正、负方向上的驱动,但在具体情景下其各自的驱动作用又呈现出波动的特征。Based on the precipitation and temperature data of the 12 meteorological stations in the ＂Three-River Headwaters＂ region and the observed runoff data of Zhimenda in the Source Region of the Yangtze River,Tangnag in the source region of the Yellow River and Qamdo in the source of Lancang River during the period of 1965-2004,this paper analyses the trends of precipitation,temperature,runoff depth and carries out significance tests by means of Mann-Kendall-Sneyers sequential trend test.Makkink model was applied to calculate the potential evaporation.The runoff model driven by precipitation and potential evaporation was developed and the influence of climate change on runoff is simulated under different scenarios.Results show that during the period of 1965-2004 the temperature of the ＂Three-River Headwaters＂ region was increasing,the runoff of the three hydrological stations was decreasing.Both of them had abrupt changes in 1994,and no significant trend changes happened to the precipitation.The runoff model suggests that the precipitation exerted positive effect on the runoff depth,while the potential evaporation played a negative role.The influence of the potential evaporation on the runoff depth of the Lancang River is found to be the most;for the Yangtze River,it is less,and for the Yellow River,it is the least.

关 键 词：三江源 气候变化 Makkink公式 驱动模型 情景分析 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]