基于配料法的“08.6.3”河南强对流天气分析和短时预报  

Analysis of the 3 June 2008 Henan Severe Convection Event with Ingredients Based Method

作　　者：吴蓁 俞小鼎[2] 席世平 徐文明 

机构地区：[1]河南省气象台,郑州450003 [2]中国气象局培训中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2011年第1期48-58,共11页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：2009年度公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY(QX)200906003;2010年预报员专项CMATG2010Y12共同资助

摘　　要：采用基于构成要素的预报方法(配料法),使用业务中能够及时获取的常规观测资料、静止气象卫星云图和多普勒天气雷达资料,对2008年6月3日下午发生在河南大部的以雷暴大风为主的强对流天气进行分析。针对2008年6月3日08时500、700、850 hPa和地面图上温、湿、风等的配置,结合探空、水汽云图和多普勒天气雷达回波图,对构成强对流天气的儿个主要因素:层结稳定度、水汽、触发机制、垂直风切变、对流层干层等进行分析,结果表明:河南大部处于较强的条件不稳定、强烈的深层(地面到500 hPa)垂直风切变和明显的高空干平流的环境中,这种环境有利于高度组织性的超级单体风暴的产生和发展,导致雷暴大风和冰雹天气。而地面冷锋、辐合线和高空次大气尺度涡旋伴随的正涡度平流共同作用产生的上升气流导致雷暴在山西中南部生成,然后向东南方向移下太行山,进入河南有利的环境下获得猛烈发展。在充分利用"配料法"的主要思路和现有观测资料条件下,结合预报经验,2008年6月3日强对流过程可以提前数小时进行正确的短时预报。By using conventional observation data,obit meteorological satellite cloud pictures,Doppler weather radar and NCEP data the paper adopted forecast method（ingredients method） based on component to analyze severe convective weather of thunderstorm and gale that happened in the afternoon of June 3, 2008 in east central Henan.Combined with sounding,vapor cloud map and Doppler weather radar echo maps that based on the distribution of temperature,moisture and wind on the 500 hPa,700 hPa,850 hPa and surface map in the morning of June 3,2008 the paper analyzed several severe convective weather components of stratification stability,water vapor,lifting triggered,vertical wind shear and tropospheric dry layer.The results show that Henan convective weather area was in the environment of stronger conditional instability,intense deep layer（from surface to 500 hPa） vertical wind shear and obvious high dry stratospheric layer.The environment was in favor of producing and developing highly organized super cell that leading to thunderstorm,strong wind and hail weather.The combined action of surface front,mesoscale convergence line and sub-synoptic scale cold vortex accompanied with positive vorticity advection resulted in rising airflow which made thunderstorm produce first in south central Shanxi.The thunderstorm moved towards southeast from the Taihang Mountain to Henan and developed vigorously in the advantageous environment. Full of using the main thinking of ingredients method the short-time forecasting of the severe convective process can forecast correctly ahead of several hours which is supported by current observation conditions together with the forecaster＇s experiences.

关 键 词：配料法 强对流 潜势预报 

分 类 号：P458.12[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]