气候变化对我国水资源影响研究面临的机遇与挑战  

Opportunity and Challenge of the Climate Change Impact on the Water Resource of China

作　　者：夏军[1] 刘春蓁[2] 任国玉[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101 [2]水利部水利信息中心,北京100053 [3]中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《地球科学进展》2011年第1期1-12,共12页Advances in Earth Science

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目“气候变化对我国东部季风区陆地水循环与水资源安全的影响及适应对象”(编号:2010CB428406);水利部公益性项目“气候变化对我国水安全影响及对策研究”(编号:200801001-07)资助

摘　　要：气候变化对水资源安全的影响是国际上普遍关心的全球性问题,也是我国可持续发展面临的重大战略问题。在文献综述基础上,总结提出气候变化与水循环是国际全球变化与水科学领域的重大交叉前沿科学问题之一。针对我国严峻的水资源问题和气候变化影响的巨大风险,提出科学基础研究面临的机遇和挑战,其中包括关键的科学问题和需要重点开展基础研究的问题。分析表明:水循环要素变化的检测与归因已成为国内外研究的难点;定量分析和预估水文的不确定性是国际上的难题;气候变化下水循环响应研究正从大气到水文的单向连接向水文—气候作用与反馈的方向发展;水资源脆弱性已成为应对气候变化、保障水资源安全重点关注的问题。气候变化挑战传统水文理论假定,包括分析和预估水文变化所面临的区域分异性、不确定性和水文极值等问题。开展气候变化与水资源影响及其适应对策研究,将是21世纪我国水科学及水资源领域面临的重大科学技术问题。The impact of climate change on water resources security is a challenging issue with widespread concern globally. It is as well the great strategic issue in the national sustainable development of China. Based on a wide review of related research, it is concluded that the research of climate change impact on the water cycle is one of the most exiting research perspectives in the study of relationship of climate change and water science. Due to the serious water resource situation plus climate change influence, the challenge and opportunity of the basic research work in the climate change impact on water resource were given. The climate change and water cycle study is the international forefront in the area of climatology, meteorology and hydrology. The detection and attribution of water cycle components change have become the international challenging problems, as well as the quantitative analysis and prediction of the uncertainties in a hydrological system ; the research of water cycle response to climate change is developing from offline hydrologic simulations to coupling climate change with hydrological dynamics ; study of the water resources vulnerability has become a key problem to deal with climate change and secure the water resources security. In the circumstances of the climate change, it is necessary to re-examine the hypotheses in traditional hydrological theories, as well as the spatial variability, uncertainty and hydrological extremes in regional hydrologi- cal studies. Carrying out the research of climate change impact on water resource and adoption measures is one of the biggest scientific problems of water sciences and water resource in the 21 century.

关 键 词：气候变化 水资源安全 中国 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]