中国能源消费驱动因素的实证研究：基于投入产出的结构分解分析  

Empirical Study of Drivers for China's Energy Consumption:Evidence from an Input-Output Based Structural Decomposition Analysis

作　　者：房斌[1,2,5] 关大博[3] 廖华[2,4] 魏鸣[2,4] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190 [2]北京理工大学能源与环境政策研究中心,北京100181 [3]剑桥大学土地经济系,英国剑桥CB3 9EP [4]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100181 [5]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2011年第2期66-77,共12页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70733005,71020107026);博士点基金(20091101110044)的部分支持

摘　　要：随着中国工业化进程加快,中国成为世界上第二大能源消费国.中国以煤炭为主化石能源的大量消费,造成了一系列的环境、经济、社会和政治问题.因此,制定合理的能源战略对中国的长期可持续发展至关重要.为了给科学合理的能源政策——尤其是中国的节能政策和相关气候变化政策的制定提供科学依据,很有必要对中国快速增长的能源消费背后的驱动因素加以研究.利用基于投入产出的结构分解模型,克服了经典的IPAT模型结果过于整合的缺点,研究了人口增长、效率、生产结构以及生活方式和水平等因素对中国能源消费的影响.经研究发现,1992至2007年间,人均GDP的提高是中国能源消费增长的最大驱动力,推动了241.93%的能源消费增量.人均GDP的推动作用随着中国经济的持续增长而增强.而能源强度的降低则部分抵消了能源消费的增量,抵消幅度达到128.73%.随着目前中国重化工业化进程加快,近年来能源强度的抵消能力有所减弱.从最终使用的角度看,总资本形成和出口则是推动能源消费增长的重要驱动力,分别为中国能源消费的增长贡献了42.42%和39.43%.With the acceleration of the industrialization process and overall social development, China has become the second largest energy consumer,which causes many environmental, economic and political problems.Therefore,in order to provide scientific reference for China＇s energy policy making,especially the energy conservation policy and relevant climate change policy,it is necessary to investigate and understand the key drivers behind＇China＇s increasing energy consumption.We extend the traditional IPAT model with latest China input-output table by combing the structural decomposition analysis（SDA） to analyze the impacts to China＇s increasing energy consumption caused by the population growth,efficiency improvement,production structure and residents＇ lifestyle change,which improves the classic IPAT.We find that from 1992 to 2007,The GDP per capita is the largest driver for the energy consumption increasing which contributed about 24.91%of the incremental energy consumption while the energy intensity improvement can partially offset about 128.73%of the incremental energy consumption.With China＇s rapid economic development and the industrialization, the contribution by GDP per capita has been strengthened while the offset effect by energy intensity was weakened.From final use perspective,investment,export and urban consumption are the main drivers for the rapid growth of China＇s energy consumption,which contributed about 42.42%and 39.43%to the total energy consumption respectively.

关 键 词：能源消费 结构分解分析 投入产出 节能 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济]