我国通货膨胀预期和通货膨胀粘性  

Inflation Expectation and Inflation Sticky in China

作　　者：李昊[1] 王少平[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学

出　　处：《统计研究》2011年第1期43-48,共6页Statistical Research

摘　　要：本文在蕴含微观经济基础的结构菲利普斯曲线框架内研究我国通货膨胀预期的结构和性质。基于最大熵自举的模型估计和推断显示:微观企业平均每三个季度调整一次价格;我国季度数据不支持通货膨胀粘性假设;在微观企业的定价过程中,理性预期所起的作用要强于适应性预期;但由于通货膨胀非粘性,真实经济中通胀持续性反而具有主导作用。经验研究结论表明,货币当局在通货膨胀预期管理中应加强货币政策的前瞻性、持续性和透明度。This article studies the structure and properties of inflation expectation in China under the Structural Phillips Curve with the micro-economic foundation.According to the Maximum Entropy Bootstrap estimation and inference results,firms adjust price once every three quarters in average,and the inflation sticky hypothesis is not in accordance with China’ s macro quarterly data.Rational expectation is stronger than adaptive expectation in the process of firms setting price.Meanwhile,inflation persistence is the main force behind the real economics.Based on China’s quarterly data,the empirical result shows that the central bank should strengthen the foreseeing,persistency and transparency of monetary policy in order to managing the inflation expectation more validly.

关 键 词：通货膨胀预期 通货膨胀粘性 最大熵自举 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]