跨国投资风险评估的响应矩阵分析方法  

A Framework and Method of Country Risk Evaluation Based on Response Matrix Analysis

作　　者：廖望科[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]大理学院经济研究所,云南大理671003 [2]大理学院经济与管理学院,云南大理671003

出　　处：《技术经济》2011年第1期56-63,共8页Journal of Technology Economics

摘　　要：对跨国投资风险做出了明确的概念界定。基于此,对相应的风险评估提出了一个可量化的分析框架和方法体系,并据此构建了将跨国投资的潜在投资收益与风险成本进行对接的跨国投资风险评估模型。该模型的核心是结合阶段适应性、风险相对性、风险与回报的共存性等特点而构建的风险响应矩阵。区别于其他类似研究,该评估模型及其响应矩阵结合定性分析与定量指标,在给出投资机会与风险排序的数值级别的同时,提供更为直观的投资机会与风险排序的图示。该模型及矩阵是构建具有高度可操作性的国家风险评估体系的重要环节。This paper proposes a set of concrete conceptual definitions of risks involved in cross-country investment.Based on these definitions,it provides a quantitative analytical framework and methodological mechanism in assessing such risks.Deriving from the framework and the mechanism,it presents a risk evaluation model for cross-country investment through constructing a linkage between potential investment returns and costs in the risks.The core of this model is the building of a response matrix which captures the flexibility,relativity,co-existence between the risks and returns involved in cross-country investment.In comparison with other works in this field,this model and its matrix would combine qualitative analysis and quantitative indexing,which not only provides more intuitive presentation of investment opportunities and risks,but also gives the ranking orders of such opportunities and risks.The model and its matrix will be a important step towards building a highly executable country risk evaluation system.

关 键 词：投资风险 风险评估 跨国投资 金融风险 风险管理 响应矩阵 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学]