珠三角宏观税负与产业集群关系的经验测度——基于VAR模型的实证分析  

Relationship between Industry Clusters and Macro Tax Burden in the Pearl River Delta:An Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model

作　　者：杨友孝[1] 利焕仪[1] 章雷[2] 

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学财经学院 [2]广东外语外贸大学国际经贸学院

出　　处：《战略决策研究》2011年第1期62-69,共8页Journal of Strategy and Decision-Making

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(编号:70773024)

摘　　要：珠三角是广东省经济发展的主体和核心,该区域产业集群及宏观税负水平快速增长,备受社会关注。本文选取1986-2009年的数据,基于VAR模型运用变量平稳性检验、协整检验、Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应分析、方差分解等方法全面分析珠三角宏观税负水平与产业集群程度之间的关系。实证结果表明:当滞后期为2时,宏观税负是产业集群的格兰杰原因,但产业集群并不是宏观税负的格兰杰原因,并且宏观税负与产业集群之间是协整的,存在长期均衡关系。The Pearl River Delta is the main developed area in Guangdong Province, and its emergent industrial clusters and increasing macro tax burden have been a subject of concern for many years. With the data from 1986 to 2009, the authors study the relationship of the macro tax burden and industrial cluster in this area based on the VAR model variable stationary test, co-integration test, Granger causality test, impulse response analysis, variance decomposition and so forth. The empirical results show that after a delay of two periods, the industrial cluster is the Granger cause of macro tax burden, and the macro tax burden is not the Granger cause of industrial clusters; furthermore, the level of macro tax burden has co-integration with the industrial clusters.

关 键 词：珠三角 宏观税负 产业集群 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F279.2F812.42