辽西北玉米不同生长阶段干旱灾害风险阈值的确定  

Determination of Drought Disaster Risk Threshold Value of Various Growth Stages of Maize in Northwestern Liaoning Province

作　　者：王翠玲[1] 宁方贵[2] 张继权[1] 刘兴朋[1] 佟志军[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学城市与环境科学学院,东北师范大学自然灾害研究所,吉林长春130024 [2]水利部松辽水利委员会,吉林长春130021

出　　处：《灾害学》2011年第1期43-47,共5页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41071326,40871236);全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划(2010CB951102);十一五国家科技支撑计划课题(2007BAC29B04),十一五国家科技支撑重大项目(2008BAJ08B14);公益性行业(农业)科研专项(200903041)

摘　　要：以辽宁省西北6个市为研究区,选取玉米为研究对象,将其划分为播种期、苗期、拔节期、抽穗期和灌浆成熟期几个重要的生长阶段,综合气象与气候学、自然地理学、灾害科学、作物生态学和自然灾害风险科学等多学科的理论和方法,在充分考虑影响玉米干旱灾害动态风险的自然因素和人为因素的基础上,利用AHP、加权综合评价法、自然灾害指数法建立了玉米干旱灾害动态风险评价指标体系及模型;通过选取典型干旱案例年,运用最优分割理论在综合考虑玉米产量损失的基础上确定了玉米不同生长阶段的干旱灾害风险阈值,并用于玉米不同生长阶段干旱灾害风险值与玉米因旱减产损失的相关分析中。结果表明:辽西北地区玉米因旱减产损失与苗期干旱灾害风险值相关系数最大,玉米受苗期干旱灾害影响最严重;在灌浆成熟期相关性也较显著,受其影响也较大,这与辽西北地区春旱发生频率最高,伏旱时常发生的事实相符合。Taking six cities in northwestern Liaoning as a case region and selecting maize as the research object,growth process of maize is divided into sowing,seedling,jointing,heading and filling stage.Using the theories and methods of meteorology,climatology,geography,disaster science,crop ecology and natural disaster risk science and so on,the maize drought disaster dynamic risk assessment system and model are worked out by using AHP,the weighted comprehensive evaluation method and natural disaster risk index method based on a full consideration of natural and human factors that influence maize drought disaster dynamics risk.By selecting typical cases of drought years and using optimal partitioning theory,drought disaster risk threshold values of different growth stages of maize are determined based on the comprehensive consideration of maize yield loss and they used in analysis of correlation between drought disaster risk threshold values of maize different growth stages and maize yield loss due to drought disaster.The results show that the correlation coefficient of maize yield loss due to drought with seedling drought disaster risk value is the maximum and the effect of seedling drought disaster on maize is the most serious.The correlation coefficient in the filling stage is also significant and the effect is also relatively serious.The result is basically consistent with the fact that frequency of spring drought is the highest and summer drought is also often in the northwestern Liaoning.

关 键 词：辽西北地区 玉米干旱灾害 风险阈值 不同生长阶段 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]