四川省德格县鼠疫流行危险分析  

Potential of Human Plague Epidemic in Dege County of Sichuan Province

作　　者：吴朝学[1] 覃芳葵[2] 汪立茂[1] 刘谊[1] 李帆[1] 祁腾[1] 岳琪[3] 王宏[3] 罗志丹巴[4] 段勇军[4] 丹巴泽里[4] 黄建忠[3] 

机构地区：[1]四川省疾病预防控制中心,四川成都610041 [2]四川大学公共卫生学院 [3]德格县疾病预防控制中心 [4]甘孜州疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《预防医学情报杂志》2011年第1期11-14,共4页Journal of Preventive Medicine Information

摘　　要：目的根据2007-2009年德格县鼠疫监测结果,对德格县鼠疫流行危险进行分析,并提出预警。方法按照"全国鼠疫总体规划"和"四川省鼠疫监测方案"及实施细则进行监测,危险性分析从危害性认定和流行病学危害两个角度展开。结果德格县鼠疫监测结果显示2007-2009年旱獭密度分别为0.24只/ha、0.22只/ha、0.39只/ha,旱獭细菌检测阳性率分别为12.12%、8.74%和16.00%。结论德格县疫源地旱獭密度和旱獭细菌检出率均呈增高趋势,动物鼠疫控制难度增大,人间鼠疫发生危险性增高。Objective To analyze the risk of human plague epidemic in Dege county according to the surveillance results from 2007 to 2009,and provide early warning.Methods The survey was conducted according to ＂National plan of plague surveillance＂ and ＂Plague surveillance program in Sichuan province＂,and the risk analysis included risk identification and epidemic potential.Results The surveillance indicated that the density of Marmota himalayana was 0.24/ha in 2007,0.22 /ha in 2008 and 0.39/ha in 2009.The positive rate of plague bacillus was 12.12% in 2007,8.74% in 2008 and 16.00% in 2009.Conclusion Both the density of Marmota himalayana and the infection rate of plague bacillus increased,resulting in the difficulty to control animal plague,so the potential of human plague epidemic increased.

关 键 词：鼠疫 德格县 危险性 预警 

分 类 号：R516.8[医药卫生—内科学]