动态最优多因子组合的华北汛期降水模式误差估计及预报  

Dynamic optimal multi-indexes configuration for estimating the prediction errors of dynamical climate model in North China

作　　者：杨杰[1,2] 王启光[1] 支蓉[3] 封国林[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院,兰州730000 [2]中国科学院大气物理研究所东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室,北京100029 [3]国家气候中心,中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《物理学报》2011年第2期827-839,共13页Acta Physica Sinica

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项基金(批准号:GYHY200806005);国家自然科学基金(批准号:40875040,40930952);国家科技支撑计划(批准号:2007BAC29B01,2009BAC51B04)资助的课题~~

摘　　要：利用国家气候中心季节预报1983—2009年27年模式预报结果,结合74项环流指数及美国国家海洋局和大气管理局提供的40个气候指数和美国气候预报中心实际降水分析资料,采用资料诊断分析和数值模拟实验相结合的方法,通过多因子的历史相似信息提取预报相似年,获得预报场的误差订正项.在这一订正思路的基础上,考虑前期关键影响因子的选取、多因子组合的优化配置,构建适用于不同预报年的区域动力-统计模式预报误差订正方案.以华北为例,探索多因子最优组合的多元客观相似判据,发展基于多因子动力-统计模式预报误差的动态订正新技术,改善华北夏季降水预报效果,提高预报技巧.通过2005—2009年独立样本回报结果表明,动态最优多因子组合相似订正方法距平相关系数评分相对于系统订正方法有着显著的提高,该订正方案对华北地区的夏季降水预测有着很好的业务前景,具有重要的应用价值,即将投入业务运行.Based on the idea of using the historical-analogue information to revise the prediction errors of National Climate Centre numerical business model,for North China,based on analysis data of the CMAP from 1983 to 2009,40 pieces of climate indices from NOAA,27 years of the season prediction model results from 1983 to 2009 and 74 pieces of circulation characteristics materials provided by Weather Diagnostic Forecasting Room of National Climate Center,using the method of combining data analysis and numerical simulation of diagnostic tests,taking the advantage of the prediction error of the key information of similar model from the historical data,by identifying key factors,optimizing allocation of the different factors of different forecasting years,we established specific multi-factor dynamic optimal portfolios to revise prediction errors in different periods of the power-statistical model in North China,and constructed early environmental factors similar to field multiple objective criteria,to develop new technology of revising prediction errors from the power-statistical model based on dynamic optimal combination of multi-factor,and improved the prediction effect in the summer precipitation in North China and the forecasting skills. Results of independent sample return of 2005—2009 shows that,the score of similarity revised method has improved significantly compared with the score of systematic revised method. The method has a good prospect for summer precipitation forecast in North China,and is going to be put into operation.

关 键 词：关键因子集 模式误差估计 汛期降水 预测 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]