电气化铁道牵引变电所负荷概率模型  

A Load Probability Model for Electrified Railway Traction Substations

作　　者：杨少兵[1] 吴命利[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学电气工程学院,北京市100044

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2010年第24期40-45,共6页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(60776830);国家电网公司重大项目(SGKJ[2007]102)~~

摘　　要：考虑牵引负荷具有随机波动的特点,提出了一种利用概率模型描述牵引变电所有功功率和无功功率的方法。基于实测数据,统计分析了电力机车和牵引变电所有功功率分布特点。利用单台电力机车有功功率分布和行车密度分布联合对牵引变电所有功功率进行概率建模,进而通过按功率因数特性对机车适当分类,建立了无功功率概率模型。给出了采用模拟退火算法完成概率模型参数辨识的方法。最后通过实例求解和蒙特卡洛仿真,验证了所提出的概率模型的有效性。In consideration of the stochastic variation of traction loads,a method for describing the active and reactive power of traction substations with a probability model is proposed.First,based on the field measured data,the distribution characteristics of the active power of electric locomotives and traction substations are analyzed statistically.The distributions of the active power of single locomotive and the train density are jointly used to build the probabilistic representation of the traction substation active power.Then the probability model for the reactive power is developed by appropriate classification of the locomotives according to their power factor characteristics.The method of identifying the parameters of the load model by the simulated annealing algorithm is given.Finally,through calculation of an example and Monte Carlo simulation,the usability of the probability model has been validated.

关 键 词：牵引负荷 电气化铁道 概率模型 模拟退火算法 

分 类 号：U224[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]