用多参数回归关联方法分析变压器油纸绝缘老化特性  

Insulation Aging Characteristics of Transformer Oil-paper by Multi-parameter Regression Analysis

作　　者：韩慧慧[1] 杨道武[1] 王溯[1] 李哲文 李海如[1] 任卓[1] 

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学化学与生物工程学院,长沙410114 [2]湖南省超高压输变电公司,长沙410100

出　　处：《高电压技术》2010年第12期2937-2941,共5页High Voltage Engineering

基　　金：电力与交通材料保护湖南省重点实验室开放基金(090010)~~

摘　　要：变压器油纸的绝缘体积电阻率ρV、酸值、CO2与CO体积分数比值φ(CO2)/φ(CO)、水的质量浓度ρH2O、运动粘度v等特征参数受各种因素的影响,相互之间存在一定的相关性,建立其相关模型可以评估绝缘纸的绝缘老化特性。为此,对#25克拉玛依变压器油和#45大庆变压器油和绝缘纸组成的绝缘试品在120°C和100°C下开展热老化实验,测量并记录了老化过程中的老化特征参数及变化规律,对各参数变化规律进行了分析,并用多元线性回归方法分别建立了聚合度(DP)Dp和糠醛的质量浓度ρC5H4O2与ρV、酸值、φ(CO2)/φ(CO)、ρH2O、v、时间的函数回归模型。结果表明:ρH2O和φ(CO2)/φ(CO)随老化时间的延长都呈现呈现先上升后下降的趋势,常规参数与Dp和ρC5H4O2存在多元线性关系。多元线性回归模型的建立,有助于通过常规实验发现固体绝缘老化的趋势,对于变压器实际故障检测具有重要意义。The main aging parameters of transformer oil paper include insulation volume resistivity,acid value,φ（CO2）/φ（CO）,water content,viscosity,furfural content and degree of polymerization,etc.All of these characteristic parameters are affected by various factors.And there is a correlation interaction between these parameters.The aging insulation properties of oil paper can be evaluated by establishing the relative model between them.In this paper two types of oil paper samples are thermally aged in two temperatures of 120degrees celsius and 100degrees celsius.The samples are constituted by No.25oil,No.45oil and insulation of Shenyang Guangyuan.Some aging indicators are measured and recordedduring the aging process.And each parameter variation rule was analyzed.Then,the model of functional relation for furfural content and degree of polymerization respectively with insulation volume resistivity,acid value,φ（CO2）/φ（CO）value,water content,viscosity and service period are established by multiple linear regression analysis.The main conclusions obtained from test results are as folows：the water and the φ（CO2）/φ（CO）value are rising firstly and then dropping along with the increase of aging time.There is multiple linear relationship between the general parameters and the degree of polymerization and furfural content.The solid insulation aging trend can be found through conventional experiments.It is great significance to transformer practical fault detection.

关 键 词：变压器油纸 热老化 老化参数 聚合度 糠醛 多元线性回归 

分 类 号：TM855[电气工程—高电压与绝缘技术]