基于主成分分析和德尔菲法的房地产投资环境综合评价体系  

Comprehensive Evaluation System for Real Estate Investment Environment based on Principal Component Analysis and Delphi Method

作　　者：周鹏[1] 张红[1] 谢娜[1] 郑健力[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学建设管理系,北京100084

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2010年第12期58-63,共6页China Land Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71073096)

摘　　要：研究目的:选用22个主要省会城市的统计数据,确定合理的房地产投资环境评价指标,构建房地产投资环境综合评价体系。研究方法:主成分分析法和德尔菲法。研究结果:从城市宏观经济、房地产市场、基础设施和区位条件4方面初选房地产投资环境评价指标,利用主成分分析法对样本城市的投资环境优劣进行分析,剔除导致排序结果偏差的指标,避免了评价指标选择的盲目性;采用德尔菲法确定各指标权重,建立房地产投资环境的多指标综合评价公式,以此计算22个城市房地产投资环境的综合得分,其排名符合实际情况。研究结论:所构建的房地产投资环境综合评价体系具有较强的逻辑性,评价方法简洁高效,具有良好的应用价值。The purpose of this paper is to establish a feasible evaluating indicator system for assessing real estate investment environment based on the statistical data in the selected 22 main capital cities in China. Methods of principal component analysis and Delphi method were employed. The results indicate that （1）the evaluating indicators of real estate investment environment have been chosen based on 4 aspects, i.e., urban macro-economy, real estate market, infrastructure and location conditions; （2）the advantages and disadvantages of investment environments in sampling cities have been analyzed using principal component method; （3）the indicators causing ranking results errors have been removed and the blindness in selecting the indicators has been avoided;（4）by using Delphi method the weights of various indicators are determined, and the multi-indicator comprehensive evaluation formula of real estate investment environment has been established;（5）through above steps the comprehensive scores of real estate investment environments in 22 cities have been calculated, and the ranking results are accordant with the actual situations. It is concluded that the established evaluation system of real estate investment environment has good logicality, and the evaluating method is concise and highly effective, thus with considerable practical values .

关 键 词：房地产经济 投资环境 综合评价体系 主成分分析 德尔菲法 

分 类 号：F293.35[经济管理—国民经济]