后危机时代的美元贬值效应与趋势  

Dollar Depreciation Effect and Trend in the Post-crisis Era

作　　者：张锐[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东技术师范学院,广东广州510665

出　　处：《南方金融》2010年第12期52-55,9,共5页South China Finance

摘　　要：美元的大幅贬值已经引发了非美货币的集体性"被升值",这种态势虽然有利于美国经济利益诉求的实现,但同时扭曲了世界经济的均衡和加剧了全球经济二次探底的风险;不仅如此,在无法左右美元走势的情况下,非美国家干预本国货币已经成为一致性选择,从而极易引致全球性的汇率战与贸易战。在这种形势下,本文认为,中国除了继续坚持人民币渐进升值的步伐外,应从减少贸易顺差与外汇储备、建立大宗商品战略和商业储备、外汇储备适度实物化及进行境外投资并购等方面着手,提前布局。Sharp depreciation of US dollar has brought appreciation of non-dollar currencies collectively.This depreciation may help US to achieve its economic interests,but is distorts equilibrium of world economy and increases the risk of double-dip.At the same time,non-dollar currencies have to intervene in their foreign exchange market given that they can＇t influence dollar depreciation which is prone to trigger currency war and trade war.At this background,in order to mitigate adverse shocks,we argue that China should stick to Renminbi appreciation pace,decrease trade surplus and foreign reserve,establish reserve strategy of bulk commodities,conduct investment and merger of foreign capitals and materialize some reserve assets.

关 键 词：美元贬值 非美货币 全球经济 货币战与贸易战 贷币政策 

分 类 号：F831.52[经济管理—金融学]