全球变暖背景下青藏高原气温周期变化与突变分析  

Analysis on Periodic Variations and Abrupt Change of Air Temperature over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under Global Warming

作　　者：吕少宁[1,2] 李栋梁[1] 文军[2] 王磊[2] 刘蓉[2] 王欣[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [2]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所寒早区陆面过程与气候变化重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《高原气象》2010年第6期1378-1385,共8页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2007CB411506)资助

摘　　要：利用青藏高原地区自1956年建站以来126个站的逐月平均温度与北半球温度距平序列,分析了高原地区气温变化的时空特征。利用相关方法研究了高原温度分布型的变化特征。通过Mann-Kendall方法和小波分析方法分析了高原内部不同区域温度周期变化和均值突变的时间顺序和空间变化。结果表明:在全球变化背景下,青藏高原温度突变存在空间上的不一致,1980年代和1990年代均有突变发生,高原东部、东南部突变较早,北部、西北部和西部次之。高原南部的突变时间最晚。均值突变和周期变化并不是同步一致的,两者在空间分布上没有必然的联系。最后,通过温度变化的对比分析,讨论了其预测结果和实际观测的差异。Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is sensitive to the Globe Change.It has been proved that,comparing to the average air-temperature of Northern Hemisphere,Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is becoming warmer faster.In this paper,126 insitu air temperature observations over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and anomaly temperature time-series of Northern Hemisphere are used to analyze the characters of air temperature variations over the Plateau.By using the correlation coefficient method,temperature distribution patterns and its variation are studied.The strongest periodic signal variations of abrupt change of air temperature are investigated by using the wavelet analysis and the M-K method.The results showed that the abrupt change of air temperature over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau started from the border region of east and southeast Plateau and then occurred in north,northwest and west part.Abrupt change was not happened until late 1990s in south part of Tibet.This phenomenon had lasted for nearly 15 years since middle 1980s.At last,by analyzing and inter-comparing the air temperature abrupt change,the discrepancy between the actual observation and the result of the cycle analysis was discussed.

关 键 词：青藏高原 温度 全球变暖 气候突变 

分 类 号：P423.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]