蒙古高压若干环流指数及与我国冬季气温异常相关的分析和比较  

Analysis and Comparison of Several Mongolian High Circulation Indices and Their Relationship With Temperature Anomaly of China in Winter

作　　者：孙晓娟[1] 王盘兴[1] 智海[1] 郭栋[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《高原气象》2010年第6期1493-1500,共8页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：江苏省研究生培养创新工程创新计划项目(CX10B_288Z);国家科技支撑计划课题(2008BAC48B02)共同资助

摘　　要：比较和分析了1990年代以来不同学者提出的冬季蒙古高压（MH）5种强度指数（Ii,i=1~5）、2种中心位置指数（λi、φi,i=4,5）的时频特征及与我国同期气温（T）的相关。分析表明,（1）5种强度指数间存在高相关,其演变特征十分相似;多数Ii均存在显著年代际变化（I4例外）,MH由强转弱的突变发生在1960年代后期。（2）2种中心位置指数地理分布区域及经向分量（φi）的年代际变化的显著性存在明显差异;MH由偏北转向偏南的突变发生在1970年代末,较Ii推迟约10年。（3）Ii、φi与我国冬季T的负相关均显著,MH强（I~′i〉0）、中心位置偏北（φ~′i〉0）年偏冷（T′〈0）;反之亦然。（4）在提供中心位置指数的两组环流指数（I4,I5）的比较中,后者在强度指数（I）的年代际变化显著性、经向位置指数（φ）的独立性及与中国同期气温的相关等方面较优于前者。这些可为环流异常和短期气候预测研究及应用提供参考依据。The time-frequency characteristics about five kinds of intensity indices（Ij,i=1~5） and two kinds of the center position indices（λi,φi,i=4,5）of Mongolian high（MH） are analyzed and compared,then the correlation relationship between the above indices and the winter temperature（T） of China at the same period is studied.These indices have been put forward by different scholars since 1990′s.The analysis shows that：（1） The high correlation exists in five kinds of intensity indices,and the evolution features are very similar.Most of the intensity indices show distinct interdecadal variation except for I4.MH changes from strong to weak at the end of 1960′s.（2） The geographic distribution and the interdecadal change significantly of the meridional center position components between φ4 and φ5 are obvious different,with φi（i=4,5） moving from north of normal to south of normal at late 1970′s,which delays for approximately 10 years than Ii.（3） There is notable negative correlation between Ii,φi,and T of the corresponding period respectively.When intensity of Mongolia high becomes strong （′i0）,the center position moves northward（φ′i0）,then it is cold（T′0）,and vice versa.（4） By comparison,in the two sets of indices provided by Hou Yahong,et al.and by Liu Qingqing,et al.,the latter set of indices are better in the aspects of interdecadal change significance,the independence of the meridional center position components and correlation relationship between Ii,φi,and T at the same period.The above results can provide valuable reference information for the research and application of circulation anomalies and short-term climate prediction.

关 键 词：蒙古高压 环流指数 时频特征 气候异常 

分 类 号：P434[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]