基于ARIMA与综合成本优化的易燃液体危险品库存模型研究  

Study on Inventory Control Model for Flammable Dangerous Liquids Based on ARIMA and Comprehensive Cost Optimization

作　　者：邓小瑜[1,2] 李引珍[1] 宋结焱[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学交通运输学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]北京师范大学珠海分校物流学院,广东珠海519087

出　　处：《兰州交通大学学报》2010年第6期145-149,共5页Journal of Lanzhou Jiaotong University

摘　　要：易燃液体危险品的库存风险大,库存成本高,其库存控制优化意义重大.从易燃液体货物库存的需求特征和控制策略入手,建立了一种基于ARIMA时间序列的需求预测模型和综合成本优化的危险品库存控制模型.先合理预测需求,再运用成本优化模型,得到最佳订货点和最佳订货量.易燃液体危险品库存成本优化模型基于库存成本,包括订货费用、储存费用、缺货损失、事故风险成本等因素,控制的目标是库存的综合成本最小化,并通过一个具体实例,验证该模型和算法的可用性.The inventory risk of flammable liquid dangerous materials is big and their inventory costs are high.The inventory control optimization is significant.With the demand characteristics and the control policy of flammable liquid cargo stocks,a dangerous material inventory control model is established based on the ARIMA demand forecast time series model and the comprehensive costs optimization model.The demand is forecasted reasonably in the beginning,and the cost optimization model is applied to get the best order point and the best volume of order.The flammable liquid dangerous material inventory cost optimization model is based on the inventory costs which include the ordering expense,the storage expense,the lose of stockout and the accident venture capital.The goal is to minimize the comprehensive inventory costs,and the usability of the model and its related algorithm is verified by an instance.

关 键 词：易燃易爆 危险品 自回归滑动平均混合模型 库存优化 

分 类 号：F760[经济管理—产业经济]