科技投入政策中的科学随机决策  

Decision-making science stochastic In science and technology input policy

作　　者：付景远[1] 张廷新 

机构地区：[1]聊城大学管理学院 [2]数学科学学院,山东聊城252059

出　　处：《科学管理研究》2010年第6期104-108,共5页Scientific Management Research

基　　金：山东省社会科学规划项目(项目编号:09CJGJ45)

摘　　要：针对引起我国科技投入产出效率低下的即包括资源禀赋、自然及经济条件等客观因素,也有政策制定及实施的失误,对于客观条件去改变现状的难度非常的大等因素,创造性的在科技政策风险决策中引入后验信息试验,对原始随机决策模型进行修正,并进行精确度测试,最后引入一个算例达到对实际预测进行指导和对模型进行证明的目的。Causes our country science and technology to put into production the efficiency low factor to be many,namely includes the resources talent,the nature and the current economic condition and so on objective factor,also has the policy formulation and the implementation fault,changes the present situation regarding the detachment condition difficulty unusual big,therefore should obtain from the subjective fault,namely enhances the policy the scientific nature,the validity.The article creative introduces after the technology policy venture decision examines the information experiment,carries on the revision to the primitive stochastic decision model,and carries on the precision test,finally introduces an example to achieve to the actual forecast carries on the instruction and carries on the proof to the model the goal.

关 键 词：科技投入 后验 随机决策 

分 类 号：N945[自然科学总论—系统科学]