黑龙江省近48年积温和降水的变化及其对作物种植带的影响  

The Changes of Accumulated Temperature and Precipitation and Its Effects on Crop Belts over the Past 48 Years in Heilongjiang Province

作　　者：顾红[1] 杜春英[1] 高永刚[1] 刘丹[1] 宫丽娟[1] 于瑛楠[1] 李宇光[1] 李竑积[1] 董洁[1] 

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省气象科学研究所,黑龙江哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2010年第34期19602-19603,19622,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：利用黑龙江省80个气象观测站点48年的气象观测资料,以积温和降水作为主要因子,采用聚类分析的方法,重点分析了黑龙江省积温、降水量的时空分布和年代际变化。结果表明,随着全球气候变暖,黑龙江省平均气温呈变暖趋势,48年来全省平均升温0.88℃,但不同年代的平均气温异常各有其特点。气温异常年,20世纪90年代前以异常偏冷年为主;90年代后以异常偏暖年为主。聚类分析的结果将全省划分成5个种植带。1961～1990、1971～2000年2个标准气候年的划分大致相同,1971～2000与1961～1990年的划分界限比较,有北移趋势。20世纪90年代至今气温显著增高,1991～2008年的划分变化更大,界限北移的趋势更明显。Based upon 48-year observed data of 80 meteorological observed stations in Heilongjiang province,the paper laid special stress on analysing the temporal and spatial distribution of accumulated temperature and precipitation as well as interdecadal variation in Heilongjiang by means of cluster analysis,taking accumulated temperature and rainfall as main factors.As shown of the results,with global warming,the mean temperature in Heilongjiang showed a trend of escalation with an average increase of 0.88 ℃ throughout the whole province in recent 48 years.However,the mean temperature anomalies in different years had their own characteristics.Abnormal years in temperature were mainly the extreme cold years before the 1990s;the abnormal years were mainly comprised of the extreme warm years after the 1990s.The province was divided into 5 planting zones according to the results of cluster analysis.The partition of 2 standard climate years in 1961-1990 and 1971-2000 was basically identical.Compared with the demarcation line of 1961-1990,the divisiory boundary of 1971-2000 showed a trend of northward movement.The temperature has been on the significant increase since 1990s.The changes in division were greater from 1991 to 2005 and the trend of northward movement was more obvious.

关 键 词：气候变化 聚类分析 种植带 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S162.4[农业科学—农业气象学]