2010年沈阳市首场雷暴天气过程漏报原因分析  

Cause Analysis of Missing Reporting the First Thunderstorm Weather in Shenyang City in 2010

作　　者：隋东[1] 刘凯[1] 李大为[1] 韦涛[1] 祖歌[1] 曹志贤 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省沈阳市气象局,辽宁沈阳110168 [2]辽宁省法库县气象局,辽宁法库110400

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2010年第34期19638-19640,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：2010年5月2日,沈阳南部出现了2010年首场雷暴,虽然此次雷暴没有给沈阳地区带来严重的雷电灾害,但由于没有准确地预报出雷雨天气,预报服务效果较差。对此次雷暴天气过程漏报原因进行了分析,并用中尺度分析技术做了雷暴潜势分析,为雷暴潜势预报提供技术指标和着眼点。结果表明,此次天气过程漏报原因是:前期地面气温持续大幅度偏低,不利于强对流天气的发展;解释分析数值预报产品能力有待提高;在此次过程中T639模式预报结果优于日本数值预报;应加强对中尺度分析技术的学习和应用,提高强对流天气预报准确率。The first thunderstorm weather appeared in southern Shenyang On May 2,2010,and did not bring about severe lightning disaster for Shenyang area,but forecast service had poor effect without forecasting thunderstorm weather accurately.In our paper,the reasons for missing reporting this thunderstorm weather were analyzed,and the analysis on thunderstorm potential was carried out by means of mesoscale analysis technique,providing technical index and vantage point for the prediction of thunderstorm potential.The results showed that the reasons for missing reporting this weather process were as follows： surface temperature at prophase was constantly lower going against the development of convective weather;interpreting and analyzing ability of numerical forecast product should be improved;the forecast result of T639 model was better than that of Japanese numerical forecast product,and service effect might be better if the prediction did not depend too much on Japanese numerical forecast product;the study and application of mesoscale analysis technique should be strengthened,and the accuracy rate of strong convection forecast should be enhanced.

关 键 词：雷暴 漏报 成因分析 预报着眼点 

分 类 号：P446[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]