华北地区近30年降水变化特征分析  

Analysis on the Variation Characteristics of Precipitation in North China during Recent 30 Years

作　　者：韩军彩[1,2] 周顺武[1] 王传辉[1] 岳艳霞[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [2]河北省石家庄市气象局,河北石家庄050081

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2010年第34期19644-19646,19680,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题(2007BAC29B02)

摘　　要：利用华北地区43个观测站1979～2008年的逐月降水量资料,采用EOF分解、Morlet小波变换和Mann-Kendall检验等方法,对华北地区近30年的降水变化特征进行了分析。结果表明,华北地区年和四季降水量空间分布都具有总体一致性的变化特征。年和夏季降水量在80年代中期～90年代中期明显偏多,其他时间偏少;春季降水在90年代年际变化较大;秋季降水80～90年代偏多,21世纪初期之后开始减少;冬季降水在80～90年代降水量偏少,21世纪初之后降水量开始偏多。年和夏季降水量在1997发生突变;春季和秋季降水量突变现象不明显;冬季降水量的突变发生在2000年。小波分析揭示了年和四季降水量的周期演变特征,普遍以3～4年年际变化周期为主。Based on the monthly precipitation data from 43 stations in North China from 1979 to 2008,the variation characteristics of precipitation in North China in recent 30 years were analyzed by means of EOF decomposition,Morlet wavelet transform and Mann-Kendall test.The results showed that the spatial distribution of annual and seasonal precipitation was basically identical in North China,while the annual and summer precipitation from the middle of 1980s to 1990s was obviously more than that in other periods,and there was great annual variation of spring rainfall in 1990s,while autumn precipitation was higher from 1980s to 1990s and then went down after the beginning of 21th century,which was opposite to winter precipitation,namely there was more winter precipitation from 1980s to 1990s and less winter precipitation after the beginning of 21th century.In addition,the annual and summer precipitation changed abruptly in 1997,and there was no obvious change in spring precipitation and autumn precipitation,while winter precipitation had an abrupt change in 2000.Meanwhile,wavelet analysis revealed the periodic evolution of annual and seasonal precipitation with the annual variation period of 3-4 years.

关 键 词：华北地区 降水量 空间特征 小波分析 突变检验 

分 类 号：P468.024[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]