公共投资与区域就业变动——基于动态面板数据模型的经验分析  

Public Investment and Regional Employment Fluctuations:An Empirical Analysis Based on Dynamic Panel Data Model

作　　者：苑德宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财政与贸易经济研究所,北京100836

出　　处：《上海财经大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2010年第6期54-62,共9页Journal of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"扩大内需的财税政策研究"(项目编号:09&ZD031)

摘　　要：本文构建了反映劳动力市场均衡就业量与公共基础设施水平之间关系的动态模型,分别利用全国29个省及东、中、西部各地区省份2002-2008年面板数据对公共投资的就业效应进行了实证分析。结果显示,就业存在较强的跨期路径依赖性;公路密度增加仅在短期内促进了就业水平的提高;人均普通中学拥有率增加在短期内对就业有挤出作用,但在长期中却存在更大反方向效应;同类公共投资对就业变动的影响显示出一定区域差异性。The paper constructs a dynamic model to reflect the relationship between the equilibrium employment in labor market and public infrastructure, and makes an empirical analysis of the employment effects of public investment by using the panel data of 29 provinces in the eastern, central and western regions from 2002 to 2008. The results are shown as follows： firstly, there is a strong intertemporal path dependence in employment; secondly, the increase in road density promotes the employment level only in the short term; thirdly, the increase in per capita rate of general secondary schools has the crowding-out effect on the employment in the short term, but has the more siginificant crowding-in effect on the employment in the long run; at the end, the employment effects of similar public investment among regions is featured by regional disparities.

关 键 词：公共投资 就业变动 动态面板数据模型 

分 类 号：F062.6[经济管理—政治经济学]