大地震重复特征与平均重复间隔的取值问题  

RECURRENCE BEHAVIOR OF LARGE EARTHQUAKES AND HOW TO TAKE AVERAGE RECURRENCE INTERVAL OF LARGE EARTHQUAKES

作　　者：冉勇康[1] 邓起东[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地质研究所,北京100029

出　　处：《地震地质》1999年第4期316-323,共8页Seismology and Geology

基　　金：国家地震局"九五"重点项目!(95040803) ;地震科学联合基金!(95101)

摘　　要：对延怀盆地及海原断裂古地震的详细研究表明,大地震的重复行为具有多样性。特征地震是大多数断裂活动的行为特征,但特征地震存在分级性,大地震的重复时间间隔存在分阶段性,以及断裂的相互作用会影响大地震的复发序列。因此,当大地震重复行为出现时间上的分阶段性,或特征地震分级现象导致不同强度的古地震间隔时间有明显差别时,用确定性或时间相依的概率方法评价大地震的危险性,需要分阶段或分级计算不同间隔阶段的平均值。A detailed study of paleoearthquakes in Yanhuai basin and along Haiyuan fault of China shows that recurrence behavior of large earthquakes is of variery. Characteristic earthquake is common behavior of fault activity and there is grading of characteristic earthquakes. Besides, there is phasing of recurrence behavior of large earthquakes and the interaction between segments and (or) faults. These must influence the recurrence behavior of large earthquakes. Then, when the phasing of recurrence behavior appears and when the characteristic earthquakes of different intensity cause different interval time of recurrence, we must take trend average value of recurrence interval for assessing hazard of large earthquakes using either definite method or probability method. For example, the different average value is taken as fault behavior is during long-interval between event clusters and as it is during short-interval in a cluster. Characteristic earthquakes occurred on a master segment have different average value of recurrence interval from those occurred on a secondary segment so the different average value should be taken.

关 键 词：古地震 地震复发 地震 危险性预测 地震复发间隔 

分 类 号：P315.2[天文地球—地震学] P315.7[天文地球—固体地球物理学]