基于Logistic动力学模型的矿业城市经济增长机制与可持续发展分析  

Mining Cities'Economic Growth Mechanism and Sustainable Development Analysis Based on Logistic Dynamics Model

作　　者：王帮俊[1,2] 杨东涛[1] 周敏[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学商学院,江苏南京210093 [2]中国矿业大学管理学院,江苏徐州市221116

出　　处：《矿业研究与开发》2010年第6期99-102,108,共5页Mining Research and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70601032);江苏省教育厅哲学社会科学基金项目(08SJD6300069;08SJB6300033)

摘　　要：矿业城市是以矿业资源的开发利用为主,带动和支持城市经济和社会发展的独特城市经济类型。受矿产资源储量的制约以及资源开采过程的影响,矿业城市的发展一般经历前期开发、增产期、稳产期和衰退期4个阶段。矿产资源的开发和利用是矿业城市经济发展的依托,但是又对城市的生态环境产生了严重的负面效应,对于矿业城市的可持续发展带来很大的影响。基于Logistic动力学模型分析了矿业城市的成长和发展轨迹。对矿业城市不同发展阶段的模拟表明,当发展要素基数达到零时,矿业对城市的经济发展所做出的贡献达到了可持续发展的阀值;矿业城市在进入衰退期以前,通过建立多元化的产业结构可摆脱对单纯产业的依赖性,从而实现矿业城市的可持续发展。Mining city,a unique city economic type,relies on the development and utilization of mineral resources,driving and promoting the city＇s economic and social development. Under the restraint of mineral resources＇reserve and the effects of mineral resources exploitation,the development of mining cities generally undergo four stages：the starting period,the growth period,the maturity period and the declining period. The development and utilization of mineral resources is,on the one hand,what mining cities＇economic development relies on,and on and on the other has some severe negative impact on the city＇s ecological environ-ment,having great influences on the sustainable development of mining cities. Based on Logistic dynamics model,the growth and development track of mining cities was analyzed. The simulation of the different development periods of the mining cities indicated that when the development element base reaches zero,the contribution of mining industry to the economic development of the cities reaches the threshold value of sustainable development. Before the mining cities enter into the decline period,the establishment of a diversified industrial structure can avoid the dependence of mining cities＇development on one single industry,so to realize the sustainable development of mining cities.

关 键 词：矿业城市 Logistic动力学模型 经济增长 可持续发展 

分 类 号：F407.1[经济管理—产业经济]