铁矿石期望价格的测算及其应用  

Estimation of Expectation Price of Iron Ore and Its Application

作　　者：朱灏[1,2] 李夕兵[2] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学数学与计算技术学院,湖南长沙410075 [2]中南大学资源与安全工程学院,湖南长沙410083

出　　处：《矿业研究与开发》2010年第6期103-105,共3页Mining Research and Development

基　　金：国家软科学课题资助项目(2008GXQ6D175)

摘　　要：研究了国际铁矿石价格的周期性及其对矿业经营的影响。研究表明,铁矿石不变价格的周期长为29a,期望价格41.5美元/t,波幅大于45%。以期望价格为基准,用3a平均价测不准矿业权价值是大概率事件,概率为22/29。据此认为,国际铁矿业战略经营和矿业权价值评估应重视矿业周期的影响。This paper study the periodicity of international trade price of iron ore and its influence on mining business. It is demonstrated that he cycle length of iron ore＇s fixed price is 29 years,the expectation price is 41. 5 $ /t,and its fluctuation range is over 45%. The inaccurate estimation of iron ore＇s price is an event with a big probability if estimation is based on its three-year average price,the probability is 22 /29. Therefore,it is considered that the periodicity of mining industry should be took account in the international strategic business of iron mining and the value evaluation of mining right.

关 键 词：铁矿石 期望价格 矿业战略经营 矿业权价值评估 

分 类 号：F407.1[经济管理—产业经济]