郑州市大气环境质量分析及预测  

Multivariate statistical analysis and forecast of atmospheric environment in Zhengzhou

作　　者：郭亚奇[1,2] 苗蕾[1] 张军[1] 赵勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南农业大学林学院,河南郑州450002 [2]中国农业科学院,农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《河南农业大学学报》2010年第6期704-709,714,共7页Journal of Henan Agricultural University

基　　金：国家“十一五”科技支撑计划项目(2006BAD03A17);河南省科技攻关项目(0624090010)

摘　　要：根据郑州市2008年环境监测统计数据,运用主成分分析、聚类分析对2008年郑州市不同区域、不同时段大气主要污染因子和相应污染源进行分析,以期得出各因子之间及其与环境因子之间的关系,采用灰色系统GM(1,1)对郑州市大气环境质量近5年状况进行了预测.经过主成分分析得到3个主成分:主成分1反映二氧化硫、二氧化氮、降尘的信息,主成分2反映可吸入颗粒物的信息,主成分3反映硫酸盐化速率的信息,通过计算各监测点、各月主成分综合得分得到年内大气环境质量变化规律.系统聚类将监测指标聚为3类:二氧化氮、二氧化硫、降尘为1类,硫酸盐化速率和可吸入颗粒物各为1类.采用灰色系统理论建立郑州市大气环境质量灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,结果表明,二氧化硫质量浓度有上升趋势,二氧化氮质量浓度小范围降低后保持平稳,可吸入颗粒物浓度则逐渐下降.In accordance with air pollutants monitoring and statistical data in 2008,using SPSS,DPS,and principal component analysis,cluster analysis and gray system GM（1,1）,this paper analyzes the main atmospheric pollution sources and the corresponding factors in different regions and periods in Zhengzhou city to get the relationship between the factors and environmental factors,then predicts the atmospheric environmental quality trend of Zhengzhou in the future 5 years.After the component analysis of atmospheric pollutants in Zhengzhou,principal component 1 reflects the information of the SO2,NO2,dust;principal component 2 reflects the information of the PM10;principal component 3 reflects the information of sulfation rate.Then use hierarchical cluster methods based on the scores to cluster monitoring indicators into 3 types.This study aims to establish atmospheric environmental quality gray system GM（1,1） model to predict the quality of atmospheric environment in the future 5 years in Zhengzhou,and calculate to get trends of chromes of SO2,NO2,PM10,which have an upward trend in the chroma of sulfur dioxide,nitrogen dioxide keep stable after a small reducing,Inhalable particleschroma decreased gradually.

关 键 词：大气环境 主成分分析 聚类分析 灰色系统GM(1 1) 

分 类 号：X511[环境科学与工程—环境工程]