基于灰色-马尔柯夫模型的建筑安全事故死亡人数预测  

Death Toll Prediction of Construction Safety Accidents Based on the Gray-Markov Model

作　　者：殷乃芳[1] 孙磊[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]福建工程学院数理系,福建福州350108 [2]福州大学管理学院,福建福州350002 [3]福建工程学院工程管理系,福建福州350108

出　　处：《工程管理学报》2010年第6期652-655,共4页Journal of Engineering Management

基　　金：福建工程学院科研发展青年基金项目(GY-Z09083);福建工程学院科研发展青年基金项目(GY-Z08122)

摘　　要：建筑安全事故预测是建筑安全评价和决策的基础。灰色预测适合于时间短、数据量少和波动不大的系统对象,而马尔柯夫链理论适用于预测随机波动大的动态过程。结合灰色预测和马尔柯夫链理论的优点,提出了一种灰色马尔柯夫预测模型,并运用灰色-马尔柯夫模型,对1999~2009年全国建筑安全事故死亡人数进行了预测分析。结果表明,该模型既能揭示死亡人数变化的总体趋势,又能克服随机波动性数据对预测精度的影响,具有较强的工程实用性。The prediction of construction safety accidents is the basis for the construction safety assessment and decision-making.The gray prediction is suitable for the system objects with few data,short time and little fluctuation.The Markov chain theory applies for dynamic process of random fluctuation.By combining the advantages of both gray prediction and Markov chain theory,a new gray Markov model was proposed.The proposed model was used to predict the death toll in construction safety accidents in China from 1999 to 2009.The results show that the new model can demonstrate the general trend of death toll in the construction safety accidents and overcome the influence of random fluctuating data on the prediction accuracy,which has strong practicability.

关 键 词：建筑安全事故 灰色模型 马尔柯夫链 随机波动 

分 类 号：F407.9[经济管理—产业经济]