CO2排放承载力计算模型的构建与应用  

Construction and application of calculation model for CO2 emission carrying capacity

作　　者：方恺[1] 沈万斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学环境与资源学院

出　　处：《生态科学》2010年第6期558-562,共5页Ecological Science

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2004CB418505);国家发改委专项“低碳经济方法学及低碳经济区发展案例研究”资助

摘　　要：针对现有生态足迹未考虑CO2排放承载力的问题,从碳吸收角度将净初级生产力与生态足迹法相结合,构建了CO2排放承载力计算模型,据此对吉林省近15年的CO2排放承载力进行了动态分析.结果显示,1994～2008年,吉林省人均CO2排放承载力从2.0345h㎡减少到1.9504h㎡,呈先升后降波动变化趋势.在CO2排放承载力构成中,林地、耕地、草地是主体,三者合计占89.54%～94.43%;草地变化最大,从0.5692 h㎡减少到0.1857 h㎡,降幅达67.38%;低生产力土地面积和草地面积均与人均CO2排放承载力呈极显著相关（R2=0.806、0.716）,低生产力土地扩张和草地退化是人均CO2排放承载力下降的主要影响因素.研究表明,CO2排放承载力模型反映了自然环境对能源废弃物的消纳能力,符合区域资源禀赋的实际情况.To solve the problem of ignoring CO2 emission carrying capacity （CECC） in traditional ecological footprint, we constructed a CECC model by combining net primary productivity with ecological footprint method from a standpoint of carbon absorption, taking Jilin Province as a case study. The results showed that during 1994 and 2008, the CECC per capita decreased from 2.0345 hm2 to 1.9504 hm2, showing a fluctuation with rising first and declining afterwards. In the composition of CECC, forest, arable land and grazing land are main parts, accounting for 89.54% to 94.43% of the total, and grazing land decreased most significantly from 0.5692 hm2 to 0.1857 hm2, with a decreasing percentage of 67.38. Meanwhile, less productive land area and grazing land area showed highly significant correlations with CECC per capita respectively （R2=-0.806, 0.716）, which indicated that the decreasing of CECC was mainly affected by less productive land expanding and grassland degenerating. The CECC model could reflect the ability of natural environment in energy waste absorbing, and be able to accord with the real situation of regional resource endowment precisely.

关 键 词：生态足迹 CO2排放承载力 净初级生产力 吉林省 

分 类 号：Q149[生物学—生态学]