基于灰色模型的中国农民养老保险需求测算——生命周期理论的视角  

Estimation of the Demand for Endowment Insurance of China's Rural Residents Based on Grey Model——from the Perspective of Lifetime Cycle Theory

作　　者：杨霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《广东金融学院学报》2010年第6期94-102,共9页Journal of Guangdong University of Finance

基　　金：湖北省社科基金项目([2009]005);武汉大学自主科研"70后"计划项目(武大科文[2009]23号)

摘　　要：依据扩展的农民生命周期消费模型,采用灰色GM(1,1)新陈代谢模型对2010～2020年中国农村老年人口数量和农民家庭人均消费支出进行了预测,并在此基础上测算了同期中国农民养老保险需求,研究表明:未来10年,中国农村65岁以上老年人口数量将保持5.95%的年均复合增长率,农村家庭平均人均支出将保持14.63%的年均复合增长率,由此决定了中国农民养老保险需求将保持21.45%的年均复合增长率。This paper estimates the population quantity of rural old residents and per capita consumption expenditure of rural households in China from 2010 to 2020 using grey metabolic GM（1,1） model based on the rural resident lifetime cycle model and estimates And on this basis estimates the same period of China＇s rural residents＇endowment insurance requirements accordingly.Research shows that China＇s rural population aged over 65 will keep 5.95% annual compound growth rate,rural family average spending per capita will remain 14.63% annual compound growth rate which decides the China＇s rural residents endowment insurance demand will remain 21.45% annual compound growth rate.

关 键 词：生命周期 灰色GM(1 1)模型 养老保险 

分 类 号：F840.67[经济管理—保险]