湖南烟区斜纹夜蛾(Spodoptera litura)的发生规律及预测方法  

Occurrence Pattern of Spodoptera litura in Hunan and its Prediction Methods

作　　者：曾爱平[1,2] 陈永年[1] 周志成 胡日生 龙建中 李小一 吴春娥 

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学生物安全科学技术学院,长沙410128 [2]中国烟草中南烟草农业试验站,长沙410128 [3]宁远县烟草公司,湖南宁远425600 [4]郴州市烟草公司,湖南郴州423000 [5]江华县烟草公司,湖南江华425500

出　　处：《中国烟草科学》2010年第6期9-13,共5页Chinese Tobacco Science

基　　金：国家烟草专卖局项目;湖南省烟草专卖局项目(SR038309-11Aa04);湖南省教育厅项目(06C415);湖南省科技厅项目(2010NK3011)

摘　　要：以郴州、宁远等县连续多年田间调查资料为基础,结合当地气象数据,分析了湖南省斜纹夜蛾的发生规律。结果表明,根据有效积温斜纹夜蛾在湖南每年发生4.0～4.5代,理论代数与实际代数相符;湖南斜纹夜蛾每年初始虫源全部为外地虫源;按虫源性质,全年可分为4个不同的发生时段;3月的诱蛾量与4—6月诱蛾量有显著的相关性,预测模型为y=233.54+112.44x4(r=0.815*,n=8);1月平均温度与4—6月诱蛾量也有明显的相关性(达90%可信度),预测模型为y1410350X3(r=0.595,n=9);同步迁飞昆虫小地老虎主迁入期(2—4月)的性诱蛾量与斜纹夜蛾主迁入期(4—6月)也具相关性,均可供发生趋势预测参考。斜纹夜蛾的百株虫量与为害率呈显著相关性。The occurrence pattern of Spodoptera litura was studied according to the continuous year data investigated in tobacco fields and weather data of Chenzhou and Ningyuan in Hunan.The results showed that,based on effective accumulated temperature,it was predicted that Spodoptera litura occurred 4-4.5 generations each year,which was in agreement with the observed value in field in Hunan Province.The initial resources of Spodoptera litura in early stage of the year were migration pest,there were four occurrence stages in a year according to the properties of pests resources,the number of trapped moth from April to June was significantly correlated with the number in March,the forecasting model was（r = 0.815＊,n = 8）.The number of trapped moth from April to June was significantly correlated with the daily average temperature of January（reliability degree was 90%）,the forecasting model was（r = 0.595,n = 9）.The number of trapped moth of Agrotis ypsilon at its major migration stage（February-April）,which synchronously migrated with Spodoptera litura,was significantly correlated with the number of Spodoptera litura in its major migration stage（April-June）,and it provided data for the prediction of occurrence trend of Spodoptera.litura.The damage percent was significantly correlated with the number of Spodoptera litura per 100 plants.

关 键 词：斜纹夜蛾 有效积温 小地老虎 同步迁飞 预测 

分 类 号：S435.72[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]