大型非线性结构可靠度计算方法研究  

Reliability calculation method of large-scale non-linear structure

作　　者：陆军[1] 武清玺[1] 刘建明[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学土木工程学院,南京210098

出　　处：《水科学与工程技术》2010年第6期57-60,共4页Water Sciences and Engineering Technology

摘　　要：拱坝是水利工程中的常见结构,因坝体材料的物理参数和作用于坝体的荷载均是随机变量,故坝体的应力和变形呈现出不确定性。因此,在拱坝设计和研究中,以概率统计理论为基础,对拱坝进行可靠度分析是科学、合理的。由于拱坝体量大,构造复杂,且基岩和筑坝材料具有非线性特性,使拱坝结构的可靠度分析十分困难。将可靠度计算的响应面法与拱坝应力分析的有限元法相结合,应用成熟的有限元分析软件,分析拱坝的可靠度。坝体应力与变形的计算采用三维非线性有限元法,可靠度计算采用二次响应面法。针对福建省永泰县大洋水电站拱坝的可靠度分析,得出了可靠指标的变化规律。与其他可靠度分析方法相比,该方法可以直接应用确定性的结构计算程序,使大型非线性结构的可靠度分析工作更加简便可行。Arch dam is common in the hydraulic structures,the physical parameters of constructing materials and the loads on arch dam are all random variables,they give rise to the uncertainties of stress and deformation of arch dam.Therefore analyzing the structural reliability of arch dam is scientific and reasonable in probability and statistics theory of arch dam design and research.Because of the large volume and complexities of the structure of arch dam and the nonlinear property of foundation rock and concrete,it is very difficult to carry out the reliability analysis to this kind of structures.The application of sophisticated finite element analysis software to analyze the reliability of the arch by the ways combination the response surface method（RSM） and the finite element method（FEM）.In this paper,the two-order RSM for reliability analysis is adopted to calculate the reliability of arch dam,3D nonlinear finite element method is applied to calculate stress and deformation of arch dam.According to the arch dam of Dayang power station of Yongtai county Fujian province,the calculation of reliability of the dam are conducted and reliability index＇ laws are obtained.Compared with other reliability analysis methods,the proposed method can be used determinate calculate programs,making reliability analysis more convenient.

关 键 词：混凝土拱坝 非线性结构 响应面法 有限元法 可靠度分析 

分 类 号：TV314[水利工程—水工结构工程]