人民币汇率升值预期对外汇收支的影响——基于山东的实证  

RMB Exchange Rate Appreciation Anticipation Effect on Foreign Exchange Revenue and Spending: Shandong Case

作　　者：毕德富[1] 刘连营 徐立玲[1] 殷允凤[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行济南分行,山东济南250021 [2]中国人民银行枣庄市中心支行,山东枣庄277100

出　　处：《金融发展研究》2010年第12期17-20,共4页Journal Of Financial Development Research

摘　　要：本文在进行人民币汇率对山东省外汇收支影响实证分析后,认为人民币升值预期在短期内会促进外汇收支顺差,但从长期来看,随着人民币升值压力不断加大,外汇收支顺差将出现下降,并提出相关建议。By an empirical analysis of RMB exchange rate＇s influence on foreign exchange revenue and spending of Shandong province,this article draws the conclusion that the appreciating anticipation of the RMB exchange rate can accelerate the foreign exchange payments surpluses in short term.However,as long as the pressure of RMB appreciation becomes greater,the foreign exchange payment surpluses will begin to decrease in the long run.

关 键 词：人民币汇率 升值预期 外汇收支 

分 类 号：F830.73[经济管理—金融学]