电力设备全寿命周期成本中故障成本的估算  

Estimation of Failure Cost in Life Cycle Cost of Power Equipments

作　　者：钟立华[1] 马仲能[1] 邱桂华[2] 夏成军[2] 

机构地区：[1]广东电网公司物流中心,广东广州510630 [2]华南理工大学电力学院,广东广州510640

出　　处：《广东电力》2010年第12期30-33,共4页Guangdong Electric Power

基　　金：广东电网公司科研项目(DK0010WL0003)

摘　　要：针对全寿命周期成本中故障成本难预测的问题,根据电力设备累积失效概率符合威布尔(Weibull)模型的特点,运用最小二乘法对Weibull模型参数进行估计,计算出设备的期望寿命,从而建立故障成本估算模型。通过比较分析不可修复设备和可修复设备故障成本的计算方式,针对可修复设备平均寿命的特殊性,引进等劣化理论来揭示可修复设备平均寿命之间的关系,并计算出可修复设备的故障成本。算例验证了该方法的有效性。Aiming at the difficulty of failure cost forecast in life cycle cost and in accordance with the characteristic that the cumulative failure probability of power equipments conforms to Weibull model,least square method is adopted to estimate Weibull model parameters and work out life expectancy of equipments,thereby model for failure cost estimation is established.By comparing and analyzing calculation mode of failure cost of non-repairable equipments and repairable equipemts,the equal degradation rate principle is introduced to show the relation among life expectancies of repairable equipments due to particularity of life expectancies of repairable equipments,and it works out failure cost of repairable equipments.The calculation has testified effectiveness of this method.

关 键 词：全寿命周期成本 平均寿命 威布尔模型 故障成本 等劣化率 

分 类 号：F407.61[经济管理—产业经济]