极端冰雪条件下地质灾害应急抢险决策支持系统的推理机制研究  

Research on the Reasoning Mechanism of Emergency Rescue Decision Support System of Geo-hazards under the Conditions of Extreme Snow and Ice Disasters

作　　者：邹良超[1] 谭伟[1] 廖瑞祥[1] 

机构地区：[1]三峡大学三峡库区地质灾害教育部重点实验室,443002

出　　处：《灾害与防治工程》2010年第2期67-73,共7页Disaster and Control Engineering

摘　　要：对极端冰雪条件下地质灾害采取快速、有效的应急反应，离不开信息化手段尤其是决策支持系统的帮助，而推理机作为决策支持系统的核心，其推理机制设计是否合理有效则直接决定着系统的决策效率以及决策结果的准确性。根据地质灾害应急抢险决策的特点，引入基于案例推理和基于规则推理的混合推理机制，并采用面向对象的程序设计方法，设计出了极端冰雪条件下地质灾害应急抢险决策支持系统的推理机。分析表明，基于案例推理和基于规则推理的混合推理机制的推理机能较好地模拟在极端冰雪条件下地质灾害应急抢险决策过程中人类专家的推理过程，具有较高的实用价值。A quickly and effectively emergency rescue of geo-hazards under the conditions of extreme snow and ice disasters heavily relies on information technology tools particularly decision support system, however, reasoning mechanism is the core content of decision support system. The rationality and the availability of reasoning mechanism directly affect the rationality and the availability of decision-making results and the decision-making effi- ciency of the decision support system. According to the characteristics of the decision-mak- ing of emergency rescue of geo-hazards, the paper introduces the hybrid reasoning mechanism of case-based reasoning and rule-based reasoning. Using the object-oriented programming methods, the paper designs the reasoning machine of the emergency rescue decision support system of geo-hazards under tile conditions of extreme snow and ice disasters. The result shows that the hybrid reasoning mechanism of case-based reasoning and rule-based reasoning can better imitate the reasoning process of human experts in the process of emergency rescue decision of geo hazards under the conditions of extreme snow and ice disasters. It has very high practical value.

关 键 词：地质灾害应急抢险 推理机制 规则推理 案例推理 

分 类 号：P642.2[天文地球—工程地质学]