台风环境场特征相似预报方法  

The Typhoon Forecasting System Build on Similar Characters of Synoptic Situation

作　　者：姚健 叶子祥 庄千宝 陈宣淼 余贞寿 

机构地区：[1]浙江省乐清市气象局,乐清325600 [2]浙江温州市气象台,温州325027

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2010年第4期344-349,共6页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：乐清市科技局项目(2006R003)

摘　　要：通过多种场相似计算方法的试验比较,提出环境场特征的场相似分析方法,建立台风相似预报系统。利用1950—2006年NCEP再分析资料,计算关键区域的物理量场特征值;设计图形识别程序,获取每个台风过程的天气形势场各种特征值;建立环境场特征数据库和相应的台风过程实况资料库。预报时,利用数值预报产品和实况资料计算特征值,采用逐步相似筛选的方法,在特征数据库里选出相似历史个例作为预报参照。检验表明:该系统对2007—2009年的台风预报,尤其是台风暴雨雨量预报效果较好。Based on studying several similar methods,the environmental character fields similar analysis method is given and typhoon forecasting system is build on it.With the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1950 to 2008,the physical characteristic value in the key area is calculated,the automatic pattern recognition program is designed,and the synoptic situation characters are classified based on the database.Using the characters database and the numerical forecast products and observation data,the similar historical typhoon case can be chosen as a refrence to forecast typhoon.It shows good forecast effect,especially for typhoon rainstorm prediction from 2007 to 2009.

关 键 词：台风环境场 特征数据库 相似预报 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]